Plymouth 1–1 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Plymouth

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Oxford United

R. Al Hajj 63'

W. Vaulks 44'

1/14/2025

Championship · Round 19Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Plymouth44%

×Draw25%

Oxford United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.21

Plymouth

1.52

Oxford United

1.21

Plymouth creates 26% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 34 away

1.39

creates per match

0.97

1.46

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Plymouth

1.39

Oxford United

0.97

allows per match

Plymouth

1.46

Oxford United

1.66

+0.65scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Plymouth+0.65scores more

Oxford United+0.09on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

70%

Plymouth or Oxford United

75%

Draw or Oxford United

56%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

22%

Oxford United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

78%

Plymouth 2+ goals

45%

Plymouth 3+ goals

20%

Oxford United 1+ goals

70%

Oxford United 2+ goals

34%

Oxford United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

59%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

Oxford United away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.66 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.39 + Oxford United defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Oxford United attack 0.97 + Plymouth defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Plymouth scores more

44%

level

25%

Oxford United scores more

30%

Plymouth at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

W. Vaulks

Oxford United · M

7.9

Match Events

43'

J. Thorniley← S. Long

44'

W. Vaulks↳ M. Harris

61'

Ciaron Brown

63'

R. Al Hajj↳ T. Puchacz

68'

S. Dembélé← P. Płacheta

68'

D. Scarlett← M. Harris

75'

M. Obafemi← R. Al Hajj

77'

A. Matos← Ruben Rodrigues

77'

H. ter Avest← M. Phillips

78'

Darko Gyabi

85'

I. Cissoko← V. Pálsson

89'

J. Houghton← D. Gyabi

89'

N. Ogbeta← T. Puchacz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthOxford

Overview

61%Possession39%

11Total Shots8

0.52Expected Goals (xG)0.42

6Corners3

8Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots8

2On Target3

6Off Target2

3Blocked3

6Inside Box3

5Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

451Total Passes277

366Accurate Passes174

81%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-0.02Goals Prevented-0.02

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2