Oxford United 1–3 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Plymouth

C. Brannagan 44'

R. Hardie 90+3'

S. Earley 65'

M. Butcher 19'

2/14/2023

League One · Round 32The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Oxford United45%

×Draw25%

Plymouth30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.26

Oxford United

1.60

Plymouth

1.26

Oxford United creates 27% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 114 away

1.70

creates per match

1.39

1.13

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Oxford United

1.70

Plymouth

1.39

allows per match

Oxford United

1.13

Plymouth

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

70%

Oxford United or Plymouth

75%

Draw or Plymouth

55%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

23%

Plymouth wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

80%

Oxford United 2+ goals

47%

Oxford United 3+ goals

22%

Plymouth 1+ goals

72%

Plymouth 2+ goals

36%

Plymouth 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

60%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.70 + Plymouth defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Plymouth attack 1.39 + Oxford United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oxford United scores more

45%

level

25%

Plymouth scores more

30%

Oxford United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

B. Mumba

Plymouth · M

7.9

Match Events

9'

19'

43'

44'

56'

62'

64'

65'

S. Earley↳ S. Cosgrove

66'

T. Smith← Y. Wildschut

66'

J. Houghton← J. Matete

66'

C. Wright← F. Azaz

70'

Sam Cosgrove

73'

J. Murphy← T. Goodrham

76'

B. Waine← S. Cosgrove

76'

J. Edwards← B. Mumba

80'

J. Henry← B. Fleming

80'

S. Baldock← M. McGuane

81'

87'

90+2'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordPlymouth

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots14

6Corners7

17Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots14

4On Target6

3Off Target5

2Blocked3

6Inside Box11

3Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

321Total Passes364

191Accurate Passes216

60%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls14

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1