Oxford United 2–0 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Plymouth

P. Płacheta 61'

C. Brown 14'

12/29/2024

Championship · Round 24The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Oxford United52%

×Draw25%

Plymouth23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.95

Oxford United

1.58

Plymouth

0.95

Oxford United creates 66% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 24 away

1.21

creates per match

0.64

1.25

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Oxford United

1.21

Plymouth

0.64

allows per match

Oxford United

1.25

Plymouth

1.95

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.19scores more

Plymouth-0.01on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

77%

Oxford United or Plymouth

75%

Draw or Plymouth

48%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

27%

Plymouth wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

79%

Oxford United 2+ goals

47%

Oxford United 3+ goals

21%

Plymouth 1+ goals

61%

Plymouth 2+ goals

25%

Plymouth 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

70%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.25 · 35 matches

Plymouth away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.95 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.21 + Plymouth defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.58

Plymouth attack 0.64 + Oxford United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Oxford United scores more

52%

level

25%

Plymouth scores more

23%

Oxford United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Brown

Oxford United · D

8.2

Match Events

14'

C. Brown↳ T. Goodrham

46'

C. Roberts← R. Al Hajj

61'

P. Płacheta↳ Ruben Rodrigues

65'

Matthew Sorinola

68'

T. Finn← B. Galloway

72'

M. Phillips← Ruben Rodrigues

72'

I. El Mizouni← P. Płacheta

73'

Caleb Roberts

80'

A. Gray← M. Whittaker

86'

H. ter Avest← T. Goodrham

87'

D. Scarlett← M. Harris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordPlymouth

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots11

1.08Expected Goals (xG)0.42

9Corners6

9Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots11

5On Target2

2Off Target2

7Blocked7

11Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

397Total Passes396

327Accurate Passes319

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.63Goals Prevented-0.63

Discipline

9Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

6Offsides3