Plymouth 1–0 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Plymouth

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oxford United

J. Edwards 56'

4/2/2022

League One · Round 41Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Plymouth41%

×Draw25%

Oxford United33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.30

Plymouth

1.47

Oxford United

1.30

Plymouth creates 13% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 135 away

1.55

creates per match

1.36

1.24

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Plymouth

1.55

Oxford United

1.36

allows per match

Plymouth

1.24

Oxford United

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par

Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

67%

Plymouth or Oxford United

75%

Draw or Oxford United

59%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

20%

Oxford United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

77%

Plymouth 2+ goals

43%

Plymouth 3+ goals

18%

Oxford United 1+ goals

73%

Oxford United 2+ goals

37%

Oxford United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

55%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.24 · 115 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.55 + Oxford United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.47

Oxford United attack 1.36 + Plymouth defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Plymouth scores more

41%

level

25%

Oxford United scores more

33%

Plymouth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Wilson

Plymouth · D

7.7

Match Events

45+1'

Ciaron Brown

56'

J. Edwards↳ N. Ennis

67'

J. Henry← R. Williams

67'

S. Winnall← M. McGuane

76'

Billy Bodin

77'

L. Jephcott← J. Garrick

79'

82'

89'

90+4'

90+2'

R. Broom← Panutche Camará

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthOxford

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots8

1Corners3

11Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots8

1On Target2

8Off Target4

2Blocked2

3Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

413Total Passes417

307Accurate Passes330

74%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides5