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Platense vs Rosario Central — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Platense
Platense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rosario Central
Rosario Central
M. Tissera 19'
L. Gamba 30'
10/19/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 17Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Platense41%
×Draw32%
Rosario Central28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
1.07
Rosario Central
0.82

Platense creates 30% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Platense
1.01
Rosario Central
0.96

allows per match

Platense
0.68
Rosario Central
1.14

finishing

Platense-0.36scores less
Rosario Central-0.06on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Rosario Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Platense or draw
72%
Platense or Rosario Central
68%
Draw or Rosario Central
59%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
17%
Rosario Central wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
66%
Platense 2+ goals
29%
Platense 3+ goals
9%
Rosario Central 1+ goals
56%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
20%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
60%
Rosario Central (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.68 · 20 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + Rosario Central defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Rosario Central attack 0.96 + Platense defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Platense scores more
41%
level
32%
Rosario Central scores more
28%

Platense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
L. GambaRosario CentralRosario Central · F
7.5

Match Events

5'
Leandro Desábato
19'
M. Tissera↳ F. Curuchet
30'
L. Gamba↳ E. Ojeda
55'
Facundo Curuchet
61'
E. Vecchio← L. Desábato
61'
Luciano Ismael Ferreyra← D. Zabala
64'
P. Gerzel← B. Mansilla
64'
F. Russo← F. Curuchet
65'
F. Baldassarra← N. Bertolo
73'
Luciano Ferreyra
77'
F. Lo Celso← G. Infantino
78'
L. Martínez← L. Gamba
79'
K. Lomónaco← L. Recalde
85'
T. Sandoval← M. Tissera

Possession

37%Platense

Shots

8Platense

Pass accuracy

46%Platense

Statistics

PlatenseRosario
Overview
37%Possession63%
8Total Shots14
2Corners4
8Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots14
2On Target5
4Off Target7
2Blocked2
4Inside Box8
4Outside Box6
Passing
37%Possession63%
302Total Passes509
201Accurate Passes407
67%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Platense 1–1 Rosario Central

Platense and Rosario Central drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 19, 2021.

Goals: M. Tissera (19'), L. Gamba (30').

Rosario Central controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.