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Platense vs Rosario Central — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Platense
Platense
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rosario Central
Rosario Central
N. Zalazar 90+3'
J. De Olivera 90+1' (pen)
F. Baldassarra 56'
J. Pereyra 13'
L. Gamba 26'
5/9/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 13Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Platense41%
×Draw32%
Rosario Central28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
1.07
Rosario Central
0.82

Platense creates 30% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Platense
1.01
Rosario Central
0.96

allows per match

Platense
0.68
Rosario Central
1.14

finishing

Platense-0.36scores less
Rosario Central-0.06on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Rosario Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Platense or draw
72%
Platense or Rosario Central
68%
Draw or Rosario Central
59%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
17%
Rosario Central wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
66%
Platense 2+ goals
29%
Platense 3+ goals
9%
Rosario Central 1+ goals
56%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
20%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
60%
Rosario Central (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.68 · 20 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + Rosario Central defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Rosario Central attack 0.96 + Platense defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Platense scores more
41%
level
32%
Rosario Central scores more
28%

Platense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
N. ZalazarPlatensePlatense · D
7.6

Match Events

13'
J. Pereyra↳ M. Bogado
17'
Braian Lluy
20'
Damián Martínez
26'
L. Gamba↳ J. Laso
34'
Nicolás Zalazar
45'
Franco Baldassarra
46'
F. Curuchet← T. Palacios
56'
F. Baldassarra↳ J. Pereyra
59'
M. Tissera← J. Pereyra
61'
A. Marinelli← R. Villagra
64'
G. Ávila← N. Ferreyra
73'
L. Martínez← D. Martínez
74'
F. Torrent← L. Gamba
79'
Mauro Bogado
80'
S. Callegari← P. Gerzel
80'
H. Lamberti← M. Bogado
81'
Pedro Emanuel Ojeda
82'
Facundo Curuchet
84'
Fernando Torrent
85'
Franco Baldassarra
85'
Franco Baldassarra
89'
Gastón Ávila
90+1'
J. De OliveraPenalty
90+3'
N. Zalazar↳ F. Curuchet

Possession

36%Platense

Shots

10Platense

Pass accuracy

47%Platense

Statistics

PlatenseRosario
Overview
36%Possession64%
10Total Shots20
3Corners12
18Fouls19
Shots
10Total Shots20
6On Target4
2Off Target13
2Blocked3
6Inside Box14
4Outside Box6
Passing
36%Possession64%
261Total Passes449
174Accurate Passes345
67%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls19
6Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards1
7Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Platense 4–1 Rosario Central

Platense beat Rosario Central 4-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on May 9, 2021.

Goals: J. Pereyra (13'), L. Gamba (26'), F. Baldassarra (56'), J. De Olivera (90+1' pen), N. Zalazar (90+3').

Rosario Central controlled possession (64%) and registered 20 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.