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Platense vs Banfield — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Platense
Platense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Banfield
Banfield
B. Sepúlveda 10'
8/5/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Platense44%
×Draw32%
Banfield24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
1.11
Banfield
0.74

Platense creates 50% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

Platense
1.01
Banfield
0.80

allows per match

Platense
0.68
Banfield
1.22

finishing

Platense-0.36scores less
Banfield-0.19scores less

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Banfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Platense or draw
76%
Platense or Banfield
68%
Draw or Banfield
56%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
18%
Banfield wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
67%
Platense 2+ goals
30%
Platense 3+ goals
10%
Banfield 1+ goals
52%
Banfield 2+ goals
17%
Banfield 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
65%
Banfield (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.68 · 20 matches

Banfield away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + Banfield defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Banfield attack 0.80 + Platense defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Platense scores more
44%
level
32%
Banfield scores more
24%

Platense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
S. MarcichPlatensePlatense · D
7.6

Match Events

10'
B. Sepúlveda↳ G. Rivera
27'
Emanuel Insua
46'
F. Minerva← A. Ocampo
46'
E. Bonifacio← E. Insúa
60'
C. Núñez← G. Rivera
65'
Cristian Núñez
67'
Yonathan Rodríguez
69'
Ezequiel Bonifacio
70'
S. Marcich← A. Quiroga
70'
R. Martínez← A. Lotti
70'
I. Gómez← C. Villalba
84'
Nicolás Hernández
86'
L. Montenegro← B. Barros Schelotto
86'
M. Roldán← Y. Rodríguez
86'
G. Aranda← B. Sepúlveda
90+5'
B. Galván← I. Rodríguez

Possession

62%Platense

Shots

16Platense

Pass accuracy

56%Platense

Statistics

PlatenseBanfield
Overview
62%Possession38%
16Total Shots4
0.89Expected Goals (xG)0.31
6Corners0
6Fouls17
Shots
16Total Shots4
3On Target1
9Off Target2
4Blocked1
10Inside Box2
6Outside Box2
Passing
62%Possession38%
347Total Passes225
241Accurate Passes124
69%Pass Accuracy55%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
0.35Goals Prevented0.35
Discipline
6Fouls17
0Yellow Cards5
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Platense vs Banfield

Banfield beat Platense 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 5, 2024.

Goals: B. Sepúlveda (10').

Platense controlled possession (62%) and registered 16 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.