Banfield 0–2 Platense: Result & Stats

Banfield

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Platense

R. Martínez 27'

V. Taborda 20' (pen)

4/3/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 9Estadio Florencio Solá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Banfield43%

×Draw28%

Platense29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BanfieldExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.98

Banfield

1.26

Platense

0.98

Banfield creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

1.31

creates per match

0.73

1.23

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Banfield

1.31

Platense

0.73

allows per match

Banfield

1.23

Platense

1.21

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Banfield-0.19scores less

Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banfield ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Banfield or draw

71%

Banfield or Platense

72%

Draw or Platense

57%

Winning margin

Banfield wins by 2+

19%

Platense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Banfield 1+ goals

72%

Banfield 2+ goals

36%

Banfield 3+ goals

13%

Platense 1+ goals

62%

Platense 2+ goals

26%

Platense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Banfield (draw refunded)

60%

Platense (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banfield at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 17 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banfield attack 1.31 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.26

Platense attack 0.73 + Banfield defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Banfield scores more

43%

level

28%

Platense scores more

29%

Banfield at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Banfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

V. Taborda

Platense · M

7.7

Match Events

20'

V. TabordaPenalty

27'

R. Martínez↳ N. Servetto

45+1'

45+3'

56'

61'

61'

T. Adoryán← E. Remedi

72'

F. Baldassarra

72'

I. Schor← R. Martínez

72'

G. Suso← N. Servetto

77'

I. Rodríguez← P. Souto

79'

G. Suso

81'

G. Valdivia← F. Díaz

82'

A. Sabella← F. Baldassarra

86'

M. Quiroga← V. Taborda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BanfieldPlatense

Overview

65%Possession35%

14Total Shots6

6Corners4

10Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots6

2On Target4

9Off Target1

3Blocked1

7Inside Box3

7Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

450Total Passes246

318Accurate Passes125

71%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls18

0Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1