Platense 3–1 Banfield: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Banfield

R. Contreras 90+5'

J. Benítez 65'

M. Zárate 58' (pen)

M. Cuadra 2'

8/12/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 13Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Platense44%

×Draw32%

Banfield24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchBanfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.74

Platense

1.11

Banfield

0.74

Platense creates 50% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

1.01

creates per match

0.80

0.68

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Platense

1.01

Banfield

0.80

allows per match

Platense

0.68

Banfield

1.22

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Platense-0.36scores less

Banfield-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Banfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Platense or draw

76%

Platense or Banfield

68%

Draw or Banfield

56%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

18%

Banfield wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

67%

Platense 2+ goals

30%

Platense 3+ goals

10%

Banfield 1+ goals

52%

Banfield 2+ goals

17%

Banfield 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

65%

Banfield (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.68 · 20 matches

Banfield away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + Banfield defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Banfield attack 0.80 + Platense defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Platense scores more

44%

level

32%

Banfield scores more

24%

Platense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

92

J. Benítez

Platense · F

8.2

Match Events

-5'

Haibrany Ruiz Diaz

2'

M. Cuadra↳ A. Cabrera

41'

Dylan Gissi

56'

Emanuel Coronel

58'

M. ZáratePenalty

62'

H. Tijanovich← A. Sabella

65'

J. Benítez

70'

Gregorio Tanco

71'

N. Bertolo← J. Dátolo

71'

M. González← A. Urzi

71'

J. Cruz← N. Domingo

75'

J. Esquivel← I. Schor

75'

R. Contreras← J. Benítez

81'

Luciano Abecasis

83'

V. Taborda← M. Zárate

84'

J. Perales← R. Enrique

90+3'

Horacio Tijanovich

90'

Rodrigo Contreras

90+5'

R. Contreras↳ J. Esquivel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlatenseBanfield

Overview

42%Possession58%

16Total Shots7

6Corners4

11Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots7

5On Target1

9Off Target3

2Blocked3

8Inside Box2

8Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

284Total Passes419

183Accurate Passes310

64%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

0Offsides5