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Piteå W vs Kristianstad W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Piteå W
Piteå W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Kristianstad W
Kristianstad W
S. Henriksson 90'
S. Matsubara 37'
F. Widen 88'
L. Boama 41'
T. Persson 12'
3/29/2026DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 1LF Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Piteå W42%
×Draw23%
Kristianstad W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piteå W
1.69
Kristianstad W
1.52

Piteå W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Piteå W
1.61
Kristianstad W
1.60

allows per match

Piteå W
1.44
Kristianstad W
1.77

finishing

Piteå W-0.75scores less
Kristianstad W+0.69scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piteå W ↓

Kristianstad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Piteå W or draw
65%
Piteå W or Kristianstad W
77%
Draw or Kristianstad W
58%

Winning margin

Piteå W wins by 2+
22%
Kristianstad W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Piteå W 1+ goals
82%
Piteå W 2+ goals
50%
Piteå W 3+ goals
24%
Kristianstad W 1+ goals
78%
Kristianstad W 2+ goals
45%
Kristianstad W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Piteå W (draw refunded)
55%
Kristianstad W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piteå W at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.44 · 7 matches

Kristianstad W away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.77 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piteå W attack 1.61 + Kristianstad W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.69

Kristianstad W attack 1.60 + Piteå W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Piteå W scores more
42%
level
23%
Kristianstad W scores more
35%

Piteå W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Piteå W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
L. BoamaKristianstad WKristianstad W · F
7.6

Match Events

12'
T. Persson↳ L. Boama
37'
S. Matsubara↳ S. Henriksson
41'
L. Boama↳ V. Persson
66'
J. Olsson← M. Endacott-Foster
66'
E. Sigurjonsdottir← A. Egner
73'
E. Broddheimer← M. De Jongh
82'
C. Ruedt← V. Persson
82'
F. Widen← L. Boama
82'
E. Hansson← H. Ekengren
88'
F. Widen↳ E. Hansson
90'
S. Henriksson↳ M. Ekblom

Possession

41%Piteå

Shots

12Piteå

Pass accuracy

49%Piteå

Statistics

PiteåKristianstad
Overview
41%Possession59%
12Total Shots12
1.61Expected Goals (xG)1.57
7Corners5
10Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots12
8On Target4
4Off Target3
0Blocked5
9Inside Box8
3Outside Box4
Passing
41%Possession59%
307Total Passes492
225Accurate Passes372
73%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls9
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Piteå W vs Kristianstad W

Kristianstad W beat Piteå W 3-2 in Damallsvenskan on March 29, 2026.

Goals: T. Persson (12'), S. Matsubara (37'), L. Boama (41'), F. Widen (88'), S. Henriksson (90').

Kristianstad W controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at LF Arena.