Kristianstad W 0–1 Piteå W: Result & Stats

Kristianstad W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Piteå W

S. Henriksson 63'

8/25/2024

Damallsvenskan · Round 16Kristianstads Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Kristianstad W52%

×Draw24%

Piteå W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristianstad WExpected goals in this matchPiteå W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.07

Kristianstad W

1.71

Piteå W

1.07

Kristianstad W creates 60% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 79 away

2.01

creates per match

1.00

1.14

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Kristianstad W

2.01

Piteå W

1.00

allows per match

Kristianstad W

1.14

Piteå W

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kristianstad W+0.00on par

Piteå W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristianstad W ↓

Piteå W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kristianstad W or draw

76%

Kristianstad W or Piteå W

76%

Draw or Piteå W

48%

Winning margin

Kristianstad W wins by 2+

28%

Piteå W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kristianstad W 1+ goals

82%

Kristianstad W 2+ goals

51%

Kristianstad W 3+ goals

24%

Piteå W 1+ goals

66%

Piteå W 2+ goals

29%

Piteå W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kristianstad W (draw refunded)

69%

Piteå W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristianstad W at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.14 · 80 matches

Piteå W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristianstad W attack 2.01 + Piteå W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.71

Piteå W attack 1.00 + Kristianstad W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kristianstad W scores more

52%

level

24%

Piteå W scores more

24%

Kristianstad W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kristianstad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Olivia Holm

61'

T. Skoog← S. Swedman

61'

E. Viklund← Á. Johannesen

62'

63'

67'

75'

76'

M. Green← R. Aronsson

76'

M. Ekblom← O. Holm

77'

S. Reidy← R. Siemsen

89'

F. Ikidi Michael← W. Carlsson

Kristianstad5-4-1

Piteå4-2-3-1

10

Imo

3

▼

Johannese

11

Edlund

12

▼

Swedman

6

▼

Holm

4

Johansson

17

⚽

Henriksso

15

Löfqvist

5

▼

Carlsson

21

▼

1

33

14

13

4

8

20

7

6

18

▼

Widén

11

Eiríksdót

9

▼

Siemsen

Manager: J. Almgren

67'▲T. Sandén←▼F. Widén

77'▲S. Reidy←▼R. Siemsen

Kristianstad W substitutes

29Sandén2Reidy19Pilblad23Andersson25Broddheimer27Harrysson1Maron

Manager: S. Carlsson

61'▲T. Skoog←▼S. Swedman

61'▲E. Viklund←▼Á. Johannesen

76'▲M. Green←▼R. Aronsson

76'▲M. Ekblom←▼O. Holm

89'▲F. Ikidi Michael←▼W. Carlsson

Piteå W substitutes

9Skoog19Viklund16Green20Ekblom14Michael8Åström13Murphy

Match Recap: Kristianstad W vs Piteå W

Piteå W beat Kristianstad W 1-0 in Damallsvenskan on August 25, 2024.

Goals: S. Henriksson (63').

The match was played at Kristianstads Fotbollsarena in Kristianstad.

Kristianstad W vs Piteå W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kristianstad W vs Piteå W