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Kristianstad W vs Piteå W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Kristianstad W
Kristianstad W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Piteå W
Piteå W
B. Olsson 85'
E. Gray 18'
4/27/2025DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 5Kristianstad Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Kristianstad W52%
×Draw24%
Piteå W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristianstad W
1.71
Piteå W
1.07

Kristianstad W creates 60% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 79 away

creates per match

Kristianstad W
2.01
Piteå W
1.00

allows per match

Kristianstad W
1.14
Piteå W
1.42

finishing

Kristianstad W+0.00on par
Piteå W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristianstad W ↓

Piteå W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kristianstad W or draw
76%
Kristianstad W or Piteå W
76%
Draw or Piteå W
48%

Winning margin

Kristianstad W wins by 2+
28%
Piteå W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kristianstad W 1+ goals
82%
Kristianstad W 2+ goals
51%
Kristianstad W 3+ goals
24%
Piteå W 1+ goals
66%
Piteå W 2+ goals
29%
Piteå W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kristianstad W (draw refunded)
69%
Piteå W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristianstad W at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.14 · 80 matches

Piteå W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristianstad W attack 2.01 + Piteå W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.71

Piteå W attack 1.00 + Kristianstad W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kristianstad W scores more
52%
level
24%
Piteå W scores more
24%

Kristianstad W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kristianstad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
E. PetrovicKristianstad WKristianstad W · D
9.2

Match Events

18'
E. Gray↳ S. Swedman
46'
A. Egner← V. Persson
46'
F. Widen← M. Janzen
46'
S. Sampson← F. Michael
64'
A. Sayer← R. Siemsen
64'
E. Astrom← E. Viklund
85'
B. Olsson↳ E. Petrovic
89'
M. Ekblom← A. Johannesen

Possession

63%Kristianstad

Shots

14Kristianstad

Pass accuracy

54%Kristianstad

Statistics

KristianstadPiteå
Overview
63%Possession37%
14Total Shots6
1.57Expected Goals (xG)0.41
8Corners2
6Fouls8
Shots
14Total Shots6
4On Target3
6Off Target0
3Blocked3
9Inside Box4
5Outside Box2
Passing
63%Possession37%
572Total Passes273
436Accurate Passes178
76%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls8
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
5Offsides2

Match Recap: Kristianstad W vs Piteå W

Kristianstad W and Piteå W drew 1-1 in Damallsvenskan on April 27, 2025.

Goals: E. Gray (18'), B. Olsson (85').

Kristianstad W controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Kristianstad Arena in Kristianstad.