Piteå W 1–2 Kristianstad W: Result & Stats

Piteå W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Kristianstad W

S. Eriksson 10'

K. Tryggvadóttir 63'

T. Tindell 61'

5/5/2024

Damallsvenskan · Round 4LF Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Piteå W42%

×Draw24%

Kristianstad W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Piteå WExpected goals in this matchKristianstad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.46

Piteå W

1.63

Kristianstad W

1.46

Piteå W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.56

creates per match

1.52

1.39

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Piteå W

1.56

Kristianstad W

1.52

allows per match

Piteå W

1.39

Kristianstad W

1.70

-0.68scores less than expected

finishing

+0.73scores more than expected

finishing

Piteå W-0.68scores less

Kristianstad W+0.73scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piteå W ↓

Kristianstad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Piteå W or draw

66%

Piteå W or Kristianstad W

76%

Draw or Kristianstad W

58%

Winning margin

Piteå W wins by 2+

21%

Kristianstad W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Piteå W 1+ goals

80%

Piteå W 2+ goals

48%

Piteå W 3+ goals

22%

Kristianstad W 1+ goals

77%

Kristianstad W 2+ goals

43%

Kristianstad W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Piteå W (draw refunded)

55%

Kristianstad W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piteå W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.39 · 8 matches

Kristianstad W away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piteå W attack 1.56 + Kristianstad W defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.63

Kristianstad W attack 1.52 + Piteå W defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Piteå W scores more

42%

level

24%

Kristianstad W scores more

34%

Piteå W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Piteå W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Nilsson

Kristianstad W · M

7.9

Match Events

10'

S. Eriksson

54'

Olivia Holm

58'

R. Aronsson← F. Ikidi Michael

59'

J. Johansson← S. Eriksson

61'

T. Tindell

63'

K. Tryggvadóttir

68'

Á. Johannesen← E. Viklund

69'

E. Åström← S. Swedman

82'

M. Ekblom← C. Edlund

90+2'

Hlín Eiríksdóttir

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PiteåKristianstad

Overview

34%Possession66%

9Total Shots15

1.22Expected Goals (xG)1.01

7Corners3

10Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots15

3On Target6

5Off Target9

1Blocked0

4Inside Box10

5Outside Box5

Passing

34%Possession66%

244Total Passes561

148Accurate Passes445

61%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2

Damallsvenskan: Piteå W 1–2 Kristianstad W

Kristianstad W beat Piteå W 2-1 in Damallsvenskan on May 5, 2024.

Goals: S. Eriksson (10'), T. Tindell (61'), K. Tryggvadóttir (63').

Kristianstad W controlled possession (66%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at LF Arena in Piteå.

Piteå W vs Kristianstad W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Damallsvenskan: Piteå W 1–2 Kristianstad W