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Phu Dong vs Da Nang — V.League 1 2019

Phu Dong
Phu Dong
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Da Nang
Da Nang
3/7/2026V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 15Ninh Binh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Phu Dong56%
×Draw24%
Da Nang20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phu Dong
1.71
Da Nang
0.91

Phu Dong creates 88% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 75 away

creates per match

Phu Dong
1.77
Da Nang
0.89

allows per match

Phu Dong
0.92
Da Nang
1.65

finishing

Phu Dong+0.00on par
Da Nang+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phu Dong ↓

Da Nang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Phu Dong or draw
80%
Phu Dong or Da Nang
76%
Draw or Da Nang
44%

Winning margin

Phu Dong wins by 2+
31%
Da Nang wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Phu Dong 1+ goals
82%
Phu Dong 2+ goals
51%
Phu Dong 3+ goals
24%
Da Nang 1+ goals
60%
Da Nang 2+ goals
23%
Da Nang 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Phu Dong (draw refunded)
74%
Da Nang (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phu Dong at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Da Nang away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.65 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phu Dong attack 1.77 + Da Nang defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

Da Nang attack 0.89 + Phu Dong defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Phu Dong scores more
56%
level
24%
Da Nang scores more
20%

Phu Dong at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Phu Dong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phu Dong vs Da Nang

Phu Dong and Da Nang drew 1-1 in V.League 1 on March 7, 2026.

The match was played at Ninh Binh Stadium in Ninh Binh.