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Da Nang vs Phu Dong — V.League 1 2019

Da Nang
Da Nang
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Phu Dong
Phu Dong
8/27/2025V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 3Sân Vận Động Hòa Xuân

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Da Nang31%
×Draw24%
Phu Dong45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Da Nang
1.36
Phu Dong
1.70

Phu Dong creates 25% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 13 away

creates per match

Da Nang
1.26
Phu Dong
2.31

allows per match

Da Nang
1.08
Phu Dong
1.46

finishing

Da Nang+0.00on par
Phu Dong+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Da Nang ↓

Phu Dong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Da Nang or draw
55%
Da Nang or Phu Dong
76%
Draw or Phu Dong
69%

Winning margin

Da Nang wins by 2+
14%
Phu Dong wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Da Nang 1+ goals
74%
Da Nang 2+ goals
39%
Da Nang 3+ goals
16%
Phu Dong 1+ goals
82%
Phu Dong 2+ goals
51%
Phu Dong 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Da Nang (draw refunded)
40%
Phu Dong (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Da Nang at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.08 · 76 matches

Phu Dong away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Da Nang attack 1.26 + Phu Dong defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Phu Dong attack 2.31 + Da Nang defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Da Nang scores more
31%
level
24%
Phu Dong scores more
45%

Phu Dong at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Phu Dong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Da Nang 1–3 Phu Dong

Phu Dong beat Da Nang 3-1 in V.League 1 on August 27, 2025.

The match was played at Sân Vận Động Hòa Xuân in Đà Nẵng (Da Nang).