Da Nang 2–0 Phu Dong: Result & Stats | V.League 2

Da Nang

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Phu Dong

3/1/2024

V.League 2 · Round 11Sân Vận Động Hòa Xuân

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Da Nang54%

×Draw27%

Phu Dong19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Da NangExpected goals in this matchPhu Dong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.70

Da Nang

1.41

Phu Dong

0.70

Da Nang creates 101% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 43 away

1.80

creates per match

1.09

0.30

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Da Nang

1.80

Phu Dong

1.09

allows per match

Da Nang

0.30

Phu Dong

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Da Nang+0.00on par

Phu Dong+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Da Nang ↓

Phu Dong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Da Nang or draw

81%

Da Nang or Phu Dong

73%

Draw or Phu Dong

46%

Winning margin

Da Nang wins by 2+

27%

Phu Dong wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Da Nang 1+ goals

76%

Da Nang 2+ goals

41%

Da Nang 3+ goals

17%

Phu Dong 1+ goals

50%

Phu Dong 2+ goals

16%

Phu Dong 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Da Nang (draw refunded)

74%

Phu Dong (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Da Nang at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.30 · 10 matches

Phu Dong away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Da Nang attack 1.80 + Phu Dong defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.41

Phu Dong attack 1.09 + Da Nang defence 0.30 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Da Nang scores more

54%

level

27%

Phu Dong scores more

19%

Da Nang at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Da Nang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff