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Phu Dong vs Da Nang — V.League 2 2020

Phu Dong
Phu Dong
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Da Nang
Da Nang
5/5/2024V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 15Sân vận động Ninh Bình

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Phu Dong24%
×Draw26%
Da Nang49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phu Dong
0.95
Da Nang
1.48

Da Nang creates 56% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 10 away

creates per match

Phu Dong
1.21
Da Nang
1.90

allows per match

Phu Dong
1.05
Da Nang
0.70

finishing

Phu Dong+0.00on par
Da Nang+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phu Dong ↓

Da Nang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Phu Dong or draw
51%
Phu Dong or Da Nang
74%
Draw or Da Nang
76%

Winning margin

Phu Dong wins by 2+
8%
Da Nang wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Phu Dong 1+ goals
61%
Phu Dong 2+ goals
25%
Phu Dong 3+ goals
7%
Da Nang 1+ goals
77%
Da Nang 2+ goals
43%
Da Nang 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Phu Dong (draw refunded)
33%
Da Nang (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phu Dong at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Da Nang away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phu Dong attack 1.21 + Da Nang defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.95

Da Nang attack 1.90 + Phu Dong defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Phu Dong scores more
24%
level
26%
Da Nang scores more
49%

Da Nang at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Da Nang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Phu Dong 1–0 Da Nang

Phu Dong beat Da Nang 1-0 in V.League 2 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Ninh Bình in Ninh Bình.