PFC Sochi 4–2 Rotor Volgograd: Result & Stats

PFC Sochi

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Rotor Volgograd

11/14/2018

First League · Round 22Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht (Sochi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

PFC Sochi47%

×Draw27%

Rotor Volgograd26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PFC SochiExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.96

PFC Sochi

1.40

Rotor Volgograd

0.96

PFC Sochi creates 46% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 87 away

1.84

creates per match

1.06

0.86

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

PFC Sochi

1.84

Rotor Volgograd

1.06

allows per match

PFC Sochi

0.86

Rotor Volgograd

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw

74%

PFC Sochi or Rotor Volgograd

73%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

53%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

23%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

75%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

41%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

17%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

62%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

25%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

65%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 1.84 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.40

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + PFC Sochi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

PFC Sochi scores more

47%

level

27%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

26%

PFC Sochi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff