Peterborough 4–2 Wycombe: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Wycombe

M. Maddison 66', 31'

M. Godden 10', 7'

M. Bloomfield 38'

R. Tafazolli 16' (OG)

3/2/2019

League One · Round 35ABAX Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Peterborough43%

×Draw23%

Wycombe34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.61

Peterborough

1.82

Wycombe

1.61

Peterborough creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

1.91

creates per match

1.72

1.51

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Peterborough

1.91

Wycombe

1.72

allows per match

Peterborough

1.51

Wycombe

1.74

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

Peterborough+0.17scores more

Wycombe-0.58scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

66%

Peterborough or Wycombe

77%

Draw or Wycombe

57%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

23%

Wycombe wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

84%

Peterborough 2+ goals

54%

Peterborough 3+ goals

27%

Wycombe 1+ goals

80%

Wycombe 2+ goals

48%

Wycombe 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

56%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.51 · 13 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.74 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.91 + Wycombe defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.82

Wycombe attack 1.72 + Peterborough defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Peterborough scores more

43%

level

23%

Wycombe scores more

34%

Peterborough at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

M. Godden↳ M. Maddison

10'

M. Godden↳ M. Maddison

16'

R. TafazolliOwn goal

30'

Joe Jacobson

31'

M. Maddison

38'

M. Bloomfield↳ A. Akinfenwa

66'

M. Maddison↳ M. Godden

80'

L. Reed← C. Cooke

80'

N. Tyson← M. Bloomfield

81'

85'

86'

88'

90'

Peterborough

Wycombe

1

2

3

5

26

10

⚽

▼

18

4

22

20

A

Akinfenwa

25

▼

Samuel

25

O'Malley

5

🥅

18

2

6

4

14

▼

Cooke

29

▼

Tomlin

9

⚽2A

Godden

21

⚽2A

Maddison

15

Ward

Manager: D. Ferguson

80'▲L. Reed←▼C. Cooke

85'▲G. Cooper←▼L. Tomlin

Peterborough substitutes

11Reed19Cooper1Chapman16Bennett23Denton26Stevens30Dempsey

Manager: G. Ainsworth

80'▲N. Tyson←▼M. Bloomfield

86'▲L. Bolton←▼A. Samuel

Wycombe substitutes

23Tyson17Bolton8Bean11Kashket12Cowan-Hall16Harriman30Ma-Kalambay

League One: Peterborough 4–2 Wycombe

Peterborough beat Wycombe 4-2 in League One on March 2, 2019.

Goals: M. Godden (7', 10'), R. Tafazolli (16' o.g.), M. Maddison (31', 66'), M. Bloomfield (38').

The match was played at ABAX Stadium in Peterborough.

Peterborough vs Wycombe — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League One: Peterborough 4–2 Wycombe