Peterborough 0–0 Reading: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Reading

2/16/2022

Championship · Round 24Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Peterborough41%

×Draw27%

Reading32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.15

Peterborough

1.34

Reading

1.15

Peterborough creates 17% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 112 away

1.19

creates per match

0.99

1.31

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Peterborough

1.19

Reading

0.99

allows per match

Peterborough

1.31

Reading

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

68%

Peterborough or Reading

73%

Draw or Reading

59%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

19%

Reading wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

74%

Peterborough 2+ goals

39%

Peterborough 3+ goals

15%

Reading 1+ goals

68%

Reading 2+ goals

32%

Reading 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

56%

Reading (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.19 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.34

Reading attack 0.99 + Peterborough defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Peterborough scores more

41%

level

27%

Reading scores more

32%

Peterborough at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

K. Hein

Reading · G

9.0

Match Events

21'

Oliver Norburn

46'

Hayden Coulson

68'

J. Marriott← R. Brown

79'

R. Jones← K. Poku

82'

C. Morton← J. Clarke-Harris

82'

T. Dele-Bashiru← Y. Meïté

86'

Thomas Holmes

89'

Nathan Thompson

90'

Andy Yiadom

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughReading

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots8

8Corners3

17Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots8

9On Target4

4Off Target2

3Blocked2

8Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

370Total Passes326

276Accurate Passes219

75%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

4Saves8

Discipline

17Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2