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Peterborough vs Hull City — Championship 2018

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Hull City
Hull City
K. Lewis-Potter 70', 51'
T. Smith 25'
2/26/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 35Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Peterborough39%
×Draw26%
Hull City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.35
Hull City
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 156 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.19
Hull City
1.19

allows per match

Peterborough
1.31
Hull City
1.51

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
66%
Peterborough or Hull City
74%
Draw or Hull City
61%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
18%
Hull City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
74%
Peterborough 2+ goals
39%
Peterborough 3+ goals
15%
Hull City 1+ goals
71%
Hull City 2+ goals
36%
Hull City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
53%
Hull City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.51 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.19 + Hull City defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.35

Hull City attack 1.19 + Peterborough defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Peterborough scores more
39%
level
26%
Hull City scores more
34%

Peterborough at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
K. Lewis-PotterHull CityHull City · F
8.9

Match Events

15'
Sammie Szmodics
25'
T. Smith↳ B. Fleming
46'
L. Walsh← G. Honeyman
51'
K. Lewis-Potter↳ B. Fleming
54'
Reece Brown
60'
R. Jones← J. Marriott
60'
H. Coulson← H. Burrows
65'
J. Grant← R. Brown
66'
Josh Knight
70'
K. Lewis-Potter
84'
T. Huddlestone← G. Docherty
85'
M. Wilks← T. Smith

Possession

59%Peterborough

Shots

5Peterborough

Pass accuracy

53%Peterborough

Statistics

PeterboroughHull
Overview
59%Possession41%
5Total Shots11
5Corners1
8Fouls4
Shots
5Total Shots11
1On Target6
2Off Target4
2Blocked1
4Inside Box5
1Outside Box6
Passing
59%Possession41%
548Total Passes398
445Accurate Passes286
81%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls4
3Yellow Cards0

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Hull City

Hull City beat Peterborough 3-0 in Championship on February 26, 2022.

Goals: T. Smith (25'), K. Lewis-Potter (51', 70').

Peterborough controlled possession (59%) and registered 5 shots to 11.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.