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Hull City vs Peterborough — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Peterborough
Peterborough
J. Magennis 45+1'
S. Dembélé 72'
J. Taylor 43'
10/20/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 13The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Hull City56%
×Draw23%
Peterborough21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.76
Peterborough
0.98

Hull City creates 80% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 25 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.24
Peterborough
0.68

allows per match

Hull City
1.27
Peterborough
2.28

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
79%
Hull City or Peterborough
77%
Draw or Peterborough
44%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
31%
Peterborough wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
83%
Hull City 2+ goals
52%
Hull City 3+ goals
26%
Peterborough 1+ goals
62%
Peterborough 2+ goals
26%
Peterborough 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
73%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.27 · 156 matches

Peterborough away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.24 + Peterborough defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.76

Peterborough attack 0.68 + Hull City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hull City scores more
56%
level
23%
Peterborough scores more
21%

Hull City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
J. GrantPeterboroughPeterborough · F
7.9

Match Events

14'
Tom Huddlestone
16'
Ronnie Edwards
29'
R. Smallwood← T. Huddlestone
43'
J. Taylor↳ J. Grant
45+1'
J. Magennis↳ C. Elder
47'
Nathan Thompson
61'
J. Ward← J. Knight
66'
H. Burrows← D. Butler
72'
S. Dembélé↳ J. Grant
73'
T. Eaves← J. Magennis
73'
G. Moncur← G. Honeyman
79'
C. Coventry← J. Grant

Possession

53%Hull

Shots

18Hull

Pass accuracy

52%Hull

Statistics

HullPeterborough
Overview
53%Possession47%
18Total Shots9
8Corners4
10Fouls11
Shots
18Total Shots9
4On Target5
12Off Target3
2Blocked1
14Inside Box3
4Outside Box6
Passing
53%Possession47%
446Total Passes411
368Accurate Passes318
83%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Hull City vs Peterborough

Peterborough beat Hull City 2-1 in Championship on October 20, 2021.

Goals: J. Taylor (43'), J. Magennis (45+1'), S. Dembélé (72').

Hull City controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.