Peterborough 1–3 Hull City: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Hull City

R. Brown 8'

M. Wilks 60' (pen)

K. Lewis-Potter 49'

R. Burke 21'

3/9/2021

League One · Round 35Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Peterborough34%

×Draw24%

Hull City42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.63

Peterborough

1.46

Hull City

1.63

Hull City creates 12% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 23 away

1.88

creates per match

2.09

1.17

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Peterborough

1.88

Hull City

2.09

allows per match

Peterborough

1.17

Hull City

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

58%

Peterborough or Hull City

76%

Draw or Hull City

66%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

16%

Hull City wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

77%

Peterborough 2+ goals

43%

Peterborough 3+ goals

18%

Hull City 1+ goals

80%

Hull City 2+ goals

48%

Hull City 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

45%

Hull City (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Hull City away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.88 + Hull City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.46

Hull City attack 2.09 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Peterborough scores more

34%

level

24%

Hull City scores more

42%

Hull City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

R. Brown

Peterborough · M

7.7

Match Events

8'

R. Brown

21'

R. Burke↳ G. Honeyman

28'

Ethan Hamilton

41'

Ethan Hamilton

41'

Ethan Hamilton

46'

N. Mason← S. Szmodics

49'

K. Lewis-Potter↳ C. Elder

59'

Frankie Kent

60'

M. WilksPenalty

67'

T. Eaves← G. Whyte

72'

H. Burrows← J. Ward

83'

R. Jade-Jones← J. Clarke-Harris

83'

J. Scott← K. Lewis-Potter

90'

Siriki Dembélé

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughHull

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots7

8Corners4

18Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots7

3On Target3

2Off Target3

3Blocked1

6Inside Box5

2Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

402Total Passes389

299Accurate Passes289

74%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls14

4Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

0Offsides4