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Hull City vs Peterborough — League One 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Peterborough
Peterborough
M. Wilks 36'
S. Dembélé 75'
J. Clarke-Harris 63'
10/24/2020League OneLeague One · Round 8KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hull City46%
×Draw27%
Peterborough27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.42
Peterborough
1.03

Hull City creates 38% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 157 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.39
Peterborough
1.46

allows per match

Hull City
0.61
Peterborough
1.46

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
73%
Hull City or Peterborough
73%
Draw or Peterborough
54%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
22%
Peterborough wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
76%
Hull City 2+ goals
41%
Hull City 3+ goals
17%
Peterborough 1+ goals
64%
Peterborough 2+ goals
28%
Peterborough 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
63%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.39 + Peterborough defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Peterborough attack 1.46 + Hull City defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hull City scores more
46%
level
27%
Peterborough scores more
27%

Hull City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
J. WardPeterboroughPeterborough · M
8.0

Match Events

19'
Callum Elder
33'
Nathan Thompson
36'
M. Wilks↳ J. Magennis
51'
F. Clarke← R. Broom
63'
J. Clarke-Harris↳ J. Ward
65'
Richard Smallwood
72'
H. Adelakun← K. Lewis-Potter
72'
T. Eaves← J. Magennis
75'
S. Dembélé↳ J. Ward
90'
George Honeyman
90+1'
N. Mason← N. Thompson

Possession

44%Hull

Shots

13Hull

Pass accuracy

48%Hull

Statistics

HullPeterborough
Overview
44%Possession56%
13Total Shots5
4Corners0
20Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots5
3On Target2
5Off Target1
5Blocked2
8Inside Box2
5Outside Box3
Passing
44%Possession56%
378Total Passes491
292Accurate Passes403
77%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
20Fouls12
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Hull City vs Peterborough

Peterborough beat Hull City 2-1 in League One on October 24, 2020.

Goals: M. Wilks (36'), J. Clarke-Harris (63'), S. Dembélé (75').

Peterborough controlled possession (56%) and registered 5 shots to 13.

The match was played at KCOM Stadium in Hull.