Paysandu 1–0 Botafogo SP: Result & Stats | Serie B

Paysandu

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Botafogo SP

Leandro Vilela 90'

6/14/2025

Serie B · Round 12Leonidas Sodre de Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Paysandu45%

×Draw27%

Botafogo SP28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaysanduExpected goals in this matchBotafogo SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.01

Paysandu

1.38

Botafogo SP

1.01

Paysandu creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 19 away

1.37

creates per match

0.80

1.22

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Paysandu

1.37

Botafogo SP

0.80

allows per match

Paysandu

1.22

Botafogo SP

1.38

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Paysandu-0.26scores less

Botafogo SP-0.38scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paysandu ↓

Botafogo SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Paysandu or draw

72%

Paysandu or Botafogo SP

73%

Draw or Botafogo SP

55%

Winning margin

Paysandu wins by 2+

22%

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Paysandu 1+ goals

75%

Paysandu 2+ goals

40%

Paysandu 3+ goals

16%

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

64%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

27%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Paysandu (draw refunded)

62%

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paysandu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paysandu attack 1.37 + Botafogo SP defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Botafogo SP attack 0.80 + Paysandu defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Paysandu scores more

45%

level

27%

Botafogo SP scores more

28%

Paysandu at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Paysandu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

Rossi

Paysandu · F

8.6

Match Events

25'

Thalisson Gabriel

43'

Rafael Henrique Milhorim

46'

Reverson← Patric Calmon

46'

Denner← Ronaldo Henrique

52'

Rossi

55'

Sabit Abdulai

62'

Diogo Oliveira← J. Benitez

63'

A. Dramisino← S. Abdulai

67'

Marcelinho← Matheus Vargas

68'

Jonathan Cafú

73'

Jefferson Nem← Jonathan Cafu

74'

Mauricio Garcez← Marlon Douglas

82'

Pablo Thomaz← Robinho

84'

Leandro Vilela

87'

Ericson da Silva

90'

Leandro Vilela↳ Denner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PaysanduBotafogo

Overview

47%Possession53%

16Total Shots11

1.39Expected Goals (xG)0.55

8Corners5

17Fouls17

Shots

16Total Shots11

3On Target6

9Off Target3

4Blocked2

10Inside Box4

6Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

324Total Passes389

258Accurate Passes325

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls17

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Paysandu vs Botafogo SP

Paysandu beat Botafogo SP 1-0 in Serie B on June 14, 2025.

Goals: Leandro Vilela (90').

Botafogo SP controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Leonidas Sodre de Castro in Belem.

Paysandu vs Botafogo SP — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Paysandu vs Botafogo SP