Paysandu 1–1 Botafogo SP: Result & Stats | Serie B

Paysandu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Botafogo SP

E. García 68'

Jonas Toró 79'

4/27/2024

Serie B · Round 2Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Paysandu45%

×Draw27%

Botafogo SP28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaysanduExpected goals in this matchBotafogo SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.01

Paysandu

1.38

Botafogo SP

1.01

Paysandu creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 19 away

1.37

creates per match

0.80

1.22

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Paysandu

1.37

Botafogo SP

0.80

allows per match

Paysandu

1.22

Botafogo SP

1.38

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Paysandu-0.26scores less

Botafogo SP-0.38scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paysandu ↓

Botafogo SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Paysandu or draw

72%

Paysandu or Botafogo SP

73%

Draw or Botafogo SP

55%

Winning margin

Paysandu wins by 2+

22%

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Paysandu 1+ goals

75%

Paysandu 2+ goals

40%

Paysandu 3+ goals

16%

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

64%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

27%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Paysandu (draw refunded)

62%

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paysandu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paysandu attack 1.37 + Botafogo SP defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Botafogo SP attack 0.80 + Paysandu defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Paysandu scores more

45%

level

27%

Botafogo SP scores more

28%

Paysandu at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Paysandu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Edílson

Paysandu · D

7.7

Match Events

14'

Bryan

15'

Matheus Costa

19'

Patrick Brey

46'

Douglas Baggio← Patrick Brey

46'

Wallison← Emerson Negueba

49'

51'

51'

53'

60'

61'

61'

Gabriel Santos← Ruan Ribeiro

68'

E. García↳ Leandro Vilela

74'

Robinho← Matheus Costa

74'

Jonas Toró← Leandro Pereira

74'

João Costa← Gustavo Bochecha

77'

Wesley Fraga← Leandro Vilela

77'

Michel Macedo← Edílson

79'

Jonas Toró↳ Wallison

83'

João Costa

89'

Jean Dias

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PaysanduBotafogo

Overview

49%Possession51%

14Total Shots14

7Corners2

18Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots14

5On Target5

6Off Target6

3Blocked3

11Inside Box7

3Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

308Total Passes334

249Accurate Passes251

81%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls13

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Serie B: Paysandu 1–1 Botafogo SP

Paysandu and Botafogo SP drew 1-1 in Serie B on April 27, 2024.

Goals: E. García (68'), Jonas Toró (79').

Botafogo SP controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença in Belém, Pará.

Paysandu vs Botafogo SP — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Paysandu 1–1 Botafogo SP