Paysandu 4–1 Botafogo SP: Result & Stats | Serie C

Paysandu

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Botafogo SP

Marlon 57'

Serginho 48', 46'

Mikael 3'

João Diogo 45+1'

5/8/2022

Serie C · Round 5Estádio Leônidas Sodré de Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Paysandu42%

×Draw30%

Botafogo SP28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaysanduExpected goals in this matchBotafogo SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.91

Paysandu

1.17

Botafogo SP

0.91

Paysandu creates 29% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 34 away

1.31

creates per match

0.91

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Paysandu

1.31

Botafogo SP

0.91

allows per match

Paysandu

0.91

Botafogo SP

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paysandu+0.00on par

Botafogo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paysandu ↓

Botafogo SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Paysandu or draw

72%

Paysandu or Botafogo SP

70%

Draw or Botafogo SP

58%

Winning margin

Paysandu wins by 2+

18%

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Paysandu 1+ goals

69%

Paysandu 2+ goals

33%

Paysandu 3+ goals

11%

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

60%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

23%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Paysandu (draw refunded)

60%

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paysandu at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.91 · 67 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paysandu attack 1.31 + Botafogo SP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.17

Botafogo SP attack 0.91 + Paysandu defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Paysandu scores more

42%

level

30%

Botafogo SP scores more

28%

Paysandu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Paysandu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

45+1'

46'

46'

48'

57'

61'

Bruno Michel← João Diogo

61'

Dudu← Gustavo Xuxa

64'

Danrlei← Marcelo Toscano

64'

Marcelinho← Serginho

72'

Tiago Reis← L. Delgado

74'

Lucas Costa← Mikael

81'

Alessandro Vinícius← Marlon

81'

Marlon← Thiaguinho

81'

Matheus Santos← Ericson

Paysandu

Botafogo

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Serginho

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Marlon

Manager: Márcio Fernandes

46'▲Wesley←▼João Vieira

64'▲Danrlei←▼Marcelo Toscano

64'▲Marcelinho←▼Serginho

74'▲Lucas Costa←▼Mikael

81'▲Alessandro Vinícius←▼Marlon

Paysandu substitutes

WesleyDanrleiMarcelinhoCostaViníciusEliasDioguinhoDouglasBernardPauloMarcãoYure

Manager: Leandro Zago

61'▲Bruno Michel←▼João Diogo

61'▲Dudu←▼Gustavo Xuxa

72'▲Tiago Reis←▼L. Delgado

81'▲Marlon←▼Thiaguinho

81'▲Matheus Santos←▼Ericson

Botafogo SP substitutes

MichelDuduReisMarlonSantosLucasCarvalhoPascoalSaucedo

Serie C: Paysandu 4–1 Botafogo SP

Paysandu beat Botafogo SP 4-1 in Serie C on May 8, 2022.

Goals: Mikael (3'), João Diogo (45+1'), Serginho (46', 48'), Marlon (57').

The match was played at Estádio Leônidas Sodré de Castro in Belém, Pará.

Paysandu vs Botafogo SP — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Paysandu 4–1 Botafogo SP