Botafogo SP 1–1 Paysandu: Result & Stats | Serie B

Botafogo SP

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Paysandu

Alexandre Jesus 45+1'

B. Borasi 13'

8/18/2024

Serie B · Round 21Arena NicNet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Botafogo SP46%

×Draw27%

Paysandu27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo SPExpected goals in this matchPaysandu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.99

Botafogo SP

1.39

Paysandu

0.99

Botafogo SP creates 40% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

1.27

creates per match

1.02

0.97

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Botafogo SP

1.27

Paysandu

1.02

allows per match

Botafogo SP

0.97

Paysandu

1.51

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Botafogo SP+0.16scores more

Paysandu+0.09on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP ↓

Paysandu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Botafogo SP or draw

73%

Botafogo SP or Paysandu

73%

Draw or Paysandu

54%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

22%

Paysandu wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

75%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

40%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

16%

Paysandu 1+ goals

63%

Paysandu 2+ goals

26%

Paysandu 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

63%

Paysandu (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.97 · 14 matches

Paysandu away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.51 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP attack 1.27 + Paysandu defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

Paysandu attack 1.02 + Botafogo SP defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Botafogo SP scores more

46%

level

27%

Paysandu scores more

27%

Botafogo SP at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Botafogo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Victor Andrade

Botafogo SP · F

7.5

Match Events

4'

Victor Andrade

13'

B. Borasi↳ J. Cazares

16'

Léo Pereira

34'

Wanderson← Lucas Maia

38'

Lucas Dias Costa

45+1'

Alexandre Jesus↳ Victor Andrade

46'

Edílson← Léo Pereira

47'

Edílson Júnior

55'

Alexandre JesusPenalty cancelled

61'

Paulinho Bóia← Val Soares

62'

Bryan Borges

71'

João Vieira

71'

Patrick Brey← Jean Victor

71'

Bruno Marques← Gustavo Bochecha

73'

Matheus Trindade

75'

Wanderson

77'

Leandro Vilela← J. Cazares

78'

Luan Freitas← Ruan Ribeiro

80'

Patrick Brey

83'

Ronald Camarão← Emerson Negueba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotafogoPaysandu

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots8

0.83Expected Goals (xG)0.51

4Corners4

16Fouls26

Shots

8Total Shots8

3On Target3

5Off Target3

0Blocked2

7Inside Box6

1Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

349Total Passes362

268Accurate Passes284

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls26

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

4Offsides3