Panserraikos 3–1 Kallithea: Result & Stats

Panserraikos

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kallithea

J. Salazar 90'

Jefté Betancor 84' (pen)

P. Staikos 15'

M. Alfarela 5'

4/12/2025

Super League 1 · Relegation Round - 3Dimotiko Stadio Serron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Panserraikos38%

×Draw27%

Kallithea34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanserraikosExpected goals in this matchKallithea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.18

Panserraikos

1.26

Kallithea

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 18 away

1.13

creates per match

0.89

1.47

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Panserraikos

1.13

Kallithea

0.89

allows per match

Panserraikos

1.47

Kallithea

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panserraikos+0.00on par

Kallithea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panserraikos ↓

Kallithea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Panserraikos or draw

66%

Panserraikos or Kallithea

73%

Draw or Kallithea

62%

Winning margin

Panserraikos wins by 2+

17%

Kallithea wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Panserraikos 1+ goals

72%

Panserraikos 2+ goals

36%

Panserraikos 3+ goals

13%

Kallithea 1+ goals

69%

Kallithea 2+ goals

33%

Kallithea 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Panserraikos (draw refunded)

53%

Kallithea (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panserraikos at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 53 matches

Kallithea away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panserraikos attack 1.13 + Kallithea defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Kallithea attack 0.89 + Panserraikos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Panserraikos scores more

38%

level

27%

Kallithea scores more

34%

Panserraikos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Panserraikos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Gabriel Pires

Panserraikos · M

7.9

Match Events

5'

M. Alfarela↳ Demethryus

15'

P. Staikos↳ M. Fares

20'

Josua Mejías

26'

P. Soiri← J. Mejías

51'

Triantafyllos Pasalidis

51'

Triantafyllos PasalidisCard upgrade

54'

M. Ndiaye← M. Valbuena

64'

J. Gélin← P. Staikos

70'

Jason Davidson

73'

G. Loukinas← M. Alfarela

73'

D. Metaxas← G. Vrakas

73'

K. Lebon← Demethryus

75'

M. Deletić← Volnei Feltes

80'

Giannis Tsivelekidis

80'

Mor Ndiaye

84'

Jefté BetancorPenalty

90+8'

Panagiotis Deligiannidis

90+4'

Jérémy Gélin

90+2'

M. Wagué← M. Fares

90+2'

M. Sofianos← J. Salazar

90+2'

A. Liasos← S. Oméonga

90'

J. Salazar↳ S. Oméonga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PanserraikosKallithea

Overview

67%Possession33%

18Total Shots4

5Corners2

15Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots4

7On Target1

9Off Target2

2Blocked1

11Inside Box3

7Outside Box1

Passing

67%Possession33%

533Total Passes271

456Accurate Passes186

86%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2

Super League 1: Panserraikos 3–1 Kallithea

Panserraikos beat Kallithea 3-1 in Super League 1 on April 12, 2025.

Goals: M. Alfarela (5'), P. Staikos (15'), Jefté Betancor (84' pen), J. Salazar (90').

Panserraikos controlled possession (67%) and registered 18 shots to 4.

The match was played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron in Serres.

Panserraikos vs Kallithea — Super League 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Super League 1: Panserraikos 3–1 Kallithea