Kallithea 1–2 Panserraikos: Result & Stats

Kallithea

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Panserraikos

M. Valbuena 74'

Jefté Betancor 90+2'

Z. Chatzistravos 41'

11/22/2024

Super League 1 · Round 12Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kallithea48%

×Draw25%

Panserraikos28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KallitheaExpected goals in this matchPanserraikos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.16

Kallithea

1.60

Panserraikos

1.16

Kallithea creates 38% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 52 away

1.11

creates per match

0.81

1.50

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Kallithea

1.11

Panserraikos

0.81

allows per match

Kallithea

1.50

Panserraikos

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kallithea+0.00on par

Panserraikos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kallithea ↓

Panserraikos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kallithea or draw

72%

Kallithea or Panserraikos

75%

Draw or Panserraikos

52%

Winning margin

Kallithea wins by 2+

25%

Panserraikos wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kallithea 1+ goals

80%

Kallithea 2+ goals

47%

Kallithea 3+ goals

22%

Panserraikos 1+ goals

69%

Panserraikos 2+ goals

32%

Panserraikos 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kallithea (draw refunded)

63%

Panserraikos (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kallithea at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Panserraikos away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kallithea attack 1.11 + Panserraikos defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.60

Panserraikos attack 0.81 + Kallithea defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kallithea scores more

48%

level

25%

Panserraikos scores more

28%

Kallithea at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kallithea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

M. Valbuena

Kallithea · M

8.3

Match Events

15'

Mor Ndiaye

17'

Zisis Chatzistravos

24'

Triantafyllos Pasalidis

27'

Mathías Tomás

31'

Andreas Vasilogiannis

41'

Z. Chatzistravos↳ M. Tomás

46'

M. Valbuena← A. Vasilogiannis

46'

S. Diba← A. Mercati

46'

A. Motoc← T. Pasalidis

55'

J. Salazar← M. Tomás

56'

Javier Matilla

59'

Georgios Manthatis

63'

F. Perruzzi← Z. Chatzistravos

68'

Demethryus← E. Giani

70'

Andrei Moțoc

74'

M. Valbuena

77'

R. Uldriķis← G. Loukinas

82'

90+4'

90'

90'

90+2'

Jefté Betancor↳ J. Salazar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KallitheaPanserraikos

Overview

47%Possession53%

21Total Shots15

8Corners1

20Fouls15

Shots

21Total Shots15

7On Target4

12Off Target10

2Blocked1

14Inside Box8

7Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

325Total Passes392

253Accurate Passes341

78%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

20Fouls15

5Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Kallithea vs Panserraikos

Panserraikos beat Kallithea 2-1 in Super League 1 on November 22, 2024.

Goals: Z. Chatzistravos (41'), M. Valbuena (74'), Jefté Betancor (90+2').

Panserraikos controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 21.

The match was played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Athens.

Kallithea vs Panserraikos — Super League 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Kallithea vs Panserraikos