Panserraikos 2–1 Kallithea: Result & Stats

Panserraikos

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kallithea

Jefté Betancor 90'

J. Salazar 21'

M. Alfarela 72'

3/1/2025

Super League 1 · Round 25Dimotiko Stadio Serron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Panserraikos38%

×Draw27%

Kallithea34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanserraikosExpected goals in this matchKallithea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.18

Panserraikos

1.26

Kallithea

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 18 away

1.13

creates per match

0.89

1.47

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Panserraikos

1.13

Kallithea

0.89

allows per match

Panserraikos

1.47

Kallithea

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panserraikos+0.00on par

Kallithea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panserraikos ↓

Kallithea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Panserraikos or draw

66%

Panserraikos or Kallithea

73%

Draw or Kallithea

62%

Winning margin

Panserraikos wins by 2+

17%

Kallithea wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Panserraikos 1+ goals

72%

Panserraikos 2+ goals

36%

Panserraikos 3+ goals

13%

Kallithea 1+ goals

69%

Kallithea 2+ goals

33%

Kallithea 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Panserraikos (draw refunded)

53%

Kallithea (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panserraikos at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 53 matches

Kallithea away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panserraikos attack 1.13 + Kallithea defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Kallithea attack 0.89 + Panserraikos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Panserraikos scores more

38%

level

27%

Kallithea scores more

34%

Panserraikos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Panserraikos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Jefté Betancor

Panserraikos · F

8.5

Match Events

21'

J. Salazar↳ Jefté Betancor

36'

Nicolas Isimat-Mirin

46'

A. Liasos← J. Gélin

46'

F. Mughe← P. Soiri

46'

I. Tsivelekidis← N. Isimat-Mirin

46'

A. Mercati← M. Mellado

59'

Alessandro Mercati

63'

Migouel Alfarela

72'

Migouel AlfarelaMissed penalty

72'

M. Alfarela

76'

M. Ndiaye← Demethryus

76'

K. Lebon← M. Valbuena

80'

Z. Chatzistravos← P. Staikos

85'

Triantafyllos Pasalidis

85'

Triantafyllos Pasalidis

85'

Triantafyllos Pasalidis

88'

Zisis Chatzistravos

90+2'

Panagiotis Deligiannidis

90+2'

Jefté Betancor

90+4'

A. Karasalidis← M. Deletić

90'

Jefté Betancor↳ M. Deletić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PanserraikosKallithea

Overview

48%Possession52%

16Total Shots11

7Corners3

13Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots11

7On Target5

6Off Target6

3Blocked0

7Inside Box7

9Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

365Total Passes398

298Accurate Passes323

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls15

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0