Kallithea 1–1 Panserraikos: Result & Stats

Kallithea

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Panserraikos

M. Alfarela 10'

P. Deligiannidis 46'

5/14/2025

Super League 1 · Relegation Round - 8Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kallithea48%

×Draw25%

Panserraikos28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KallitheaExpected goals in this matchPanserraikos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.16

Kallithea

1.60

Panserraikos

1.16

Kallithea creates 38% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 52 away

1.11

creates per match

0.81

1.50

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Kallithea

1.11

Panserraikos

0.81

allows per match

Kallithea

1.50

Panserraikos

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kallithea+0.00on par

Panserraikos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kallithea ↓

Panserraikos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kallithea or draw

72%

Kallithea or Panserraikos

75%

Draw or Panserraikos

52%

Winning margin

Kallithea wins by 2+

25%

Panserraikos wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kallithea 1+ goals

80%

Kallithea 2+ goals

47%

Kallithea 3+ goals

22%

Panserraikos 1+ goals

69%

Panserraikos 2+ goals

32%

Panserraikos 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kallithea (draw refunded)

63%

Panserraikos (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kallithea at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Panserraikos away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kallithea attack 1.11 + Panserraikos defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.60

Panserraikos attack 0.81 + Kallithea defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kallithea scores more

48%

level

25%

Panserraikos scores more

28%

Kallithea at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kallithea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

J. Gélin

Panserraikos · M

7.6

Match Events

10'

M. Alfarela↳ K. Lebon

15'

Dimitrios Metaxas

24'

Nicolas Isimat-Mirin

30'

T. Koutsogoulas← M. Fares

45'

Alessandro Mercati

46'

P. Deligiannidis

70'

G. Manthatis← P. Soiri

71'

E. Giani← G. Loukinas

78'

A. Vasilogiannis← A. Mercati

81'

A. Liasos← P. Staikos

85'

I. Sardelis← J. McGarry

89'

A. Maskanakis← J. Salazar

90+3'

Elia Giani

90+4'

Luka Gugeshashvili

90+2'

Panagiotis Deligiannidis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KallitheaPanserraikos

Overview

48%Possession52%

6Total Shots13

3Corners2

17Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots13

3On Target3

3Off Target8

0Blocked2

3Inside Box7

3Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

409Total Passes464

337Accurate Passes397

82%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Kallithea vs Panserraikos

Kallithea and Panserraikos drew 1-1 in Super League 1 on May 14, 2025.

Goals: M. Alfarela (10'), P. Deligiannidis (46').

Panserraikos controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Athens.

Kallithea vs Panserraikos — Super League 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Kallithea vs Panserraikos