Palestino 1–1 Nublense: Result & Stats

Palestino

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nublense

R. Fernandez 29'

I. Jeraldino 74' (pen)

2/1/2026

Primera División · Round 1Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Palestino51%

×Draw25%

Nublense24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalestinoExpected goals in this matchNublense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.00

Palestino

1.60

Nublense

1.00

Palestino creates 60% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

1.68

creates per match

0.96

1.04

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Palestino

1.68

Nublense

0.96

allows per match

Palestino

1.04

Nublense

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palestino+0.00on par

Nublense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestino ↓

Nublense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Palestino or draw

76%

Palestino or Nublense

75%

Draw or Nublense

49%

Winning margin

Palestino wins by 2+

27%

Nublense wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Palestino 1+ goals

80%

Palestino 2+ goals

47%

Palestino 3+ goals

22%

Nublense 1+ goals

63%

Nublense 2+ goals

26%

Nublense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Palestino (draw refunded)

68%

Nublense (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestino at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

Nublense away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestino attack 1.68 + Nublense defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.60

Nublense attack 0.96 + Palestino defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Palestino scores more

51%

level

25%

Nublense scores more

24%

Palestino at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Palestino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

S. Gallegos

Palestino · M

7.5

Match Events

3'

Matías Plaza

29'

R. Fernandez↳ J. Abrigo

33'

José BizamaPenalty confirmed

35'

Bryan CarrascoMissed penalty

39'

Jonathan Benítez

45+3'

Pablo Calderón

46'

G. Tapia Paez← J. Abrigo

57'

J. Leon← J. Benitez

58'

I. Tapia← G. Graciani

59'

F. Rami← L. Molina Canto

59'

D. Cespedes← M. Rivera

71'

Jovany CampusanoPenalty confirmed

72'

Fernando Meza

74'

I. JeraldinoPenalty

77'

F. Ovelar← I. Jeraldino

79'

N. Da Silva← R. Fernandez

80'

D. Salgado← B. Carrasco

82'

D. Saavedra← M. Plaza

85'

Franco Rami

90+6'

Fernando Meza

90+6'

Fernando Meza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalestinoNublense

Overview

57%Possession43%

14Total Shots9

7Corners8

10Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots9

7On Target3

4Off Target3

3Blocked3

7Inside Box6

7Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

440Total Passes316

372Accurate Passes260

85%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides5