Palestino 2–0 Nublense: Result & Stats

Palestino

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nublense

A. A. Ceza Gavilan 85'

J. Marabel 42'

3/16/2025

Primera División · Round 5Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Palestino51%

×Draw25%

Nublense24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalestinoExpected goals in this matchNublense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.04

Palestino

1.64

Nublense

1.04

Palestino creates 58% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 39 away

1.82

creates per match

1.08

1.00

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Palestino

1.82

Nublense

1.08

allows per match

Palestino

1.00

Nublense

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palestino+0.00on par

Nublense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestino ↓

Nublense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Palestino or draw

76%

Palestino or Nublense

75%

Draw or Nublense

49%

Winning margin

Palestino wins by 2+

27%

Nublense wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Palestino 1+ goals

81%

Palestino 2+ goals

49%

Palestino 3+ goals

23%

Nublense 1+ goals

65%

Nublense 2+ goals

28%

Nublense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Palestino (draw refunded)

68%

Nublense (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestino at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 40 matches

Nublense away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestino attack 1.82 + Nublense defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.64

Nublense attack 1.08 + Palestino defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Palestino scores more

51%

level

25%

Nublense scores more

24%

Palestino at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Palestino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

A. A. Ceza Gavilan

Palestino · D

8.2

Match Events

13'

Pablo Calderón

20'

Matías Plaza

42'

J. Marabel↳ J. Benitez

57'

F. Mateos← E. Valencia

57'

P. Sanchez← M. Rodriguez

57'

P. Rubio← G. Sosa

75'

L. Molina← B. Oyarzo Munoz

76'

G. Tapia Paez← J. Benitez

85'

A. A. Ceza Gavilan

86'

D. Salgado← B. Carrasco

87'

I. A. Garguez Gomez← J. Abrigo

90+2'

F. T. Montes Romero← J. Fernandez

90+2'

B. Soto← A. E. Martinez Arce

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalestinoNublense

Overview

69%Possession31%

15Total Shots10

5Corners3

7Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots10

7On Target3

6Off Target5

2Blocked2

9Inside Box5

6Outside Box5

Passing

69%Possession31%

551Total Passes252

484Accurate Passes165

88%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

0Offsides3