Palestino 1–1 Nublense: Result & Stats

Palestino

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nublense

G. Sosa 45+2'

C. Rigamonti 69' (OG)

9/1/2024

Primera División · Round 23Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Palestino51%

×Draw25%

Nublense24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalestinoExpected goals in this matchNublense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.04

Palestino

1.64

Nublense

1.04

Palestino creates 58% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 39 away

1.82

creates per match

1.08

1.00

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Palestino

1.82

Nublense

1.08

allows per match

Palestino

1.00

Nublense

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palestino+0.00on par

Nublense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestino ↓

Nublense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Palestino or draw

76%

Palestino or Nublense

75%

Draw or Nublense

49%

Winning margin

Palestino wins by 2+

27%

Nublense wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Palestino 1+ goals

81%

Palestino 2+ goals

49%

Palestino 3+ goals

23%

Nublense 1+ goals

65%

Nublense 2+ goals

28%

Nublense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Palestino (draw refunded)

68%

Nublense (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestino at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 40 matches

Nublense away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestino attack 1.82 + Nublense defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.64

Nublense attack 1.08 + Palestino defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Palestino scores more

51%

level

25%

Nublense scores more

24%

Palestino at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Palestino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

G. Sosa

Palestino · F

7.7

Match Events

31'

36'

39'

45+2'

46'

57'

66'

N. Linares← A. Martínez

66'

J. Marabel← G. Sosa

68'

G. Graciani← M. Plaza

68'

I. Rozas← M. Rivera

69'

C. RigamontiOwn goal

75'

F. Chamorro← J. Abrigo

76'

B. Véjar← B. Carrasco

77'

Misael Dávila

86'

P. Sánchez← P. Rubio

87'

Iván Rozas

90+4'

Felipe ChamorroGoal cancelled

90+4'

R. Vásquez← I. Sosa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalestinoNublense

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots12

1.32Expected Goals (xG)0.81

5Corners5

17Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots12

5On Target2

5Off Target8

0Blocked2

8Inside Box9

2Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

265Total Passes383

164Accurate Passes284

62%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Primera División: Palestino 1–1 Nublense

Palestino and Nublense drew 1-1 in Primera División on September 1, 2024.

Goals: G. Sosa (45+2'), C. Rigamonti (69' o.g.).

Nublense controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna in Santiago de Chile.

Palestino vs Nublense — Primera División 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Palestino 1–1 Nublense