Nublense 1–0 Palestino: Result & Stats

Nublense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Palestino

G. Graciani 4'

8/16/2025

Primera División · Round 20Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Nublense41%

×Draw27%

Palestino31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NublenseExpected goals in this matchPalestino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.10

Nublense

1.31

Palestino

1.10

Nublense creates 19% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 39 away

1.36

creates per match

1.18

1.03

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Nublense

1.36

Palestino

1.18

allows per match

Nublense

1.03

Palestino

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nublense+0.00on par

Palestino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nublense ↓

Palestino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nublense or draw

69%

Nublense or Palestino

73%

Draw or Palestino

59%

Winning margin

Nublense wins by 2+

19%

Palestino wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nublense 1+ goals

73%

Nublense 2+ goals

38%

Nublense 3+ goals

14%

Palestino 1+ goals

67%

Palestino 2+ goals

30%

Palestino 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nublense (draw refunded)

57%

Palestino (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nublense at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

Palestino away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.26 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nublense attack 1.36 + Palestino defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Palestino attack 1.18 + Nublense defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nublense scores more

41%

level

27%

Palestino scores more

31%

Nublense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nublense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Campusano

Nublense · D

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Diego Tapia

4'

G. Graciani↳ L. Reyes

9'

40'

41'

44'

45+6'

45'

E. Valencia← L. Molina

46'

A. E. Martinez Arce← J. Fernandez

46'

G. Tapia Paez← F. Castro

59'

J. Arias← P. Parra

59'

J. Marabel← R. Fernandez

63'

Gonzalo Tapia

69'

Junior Marabel

70'

J. Leon← I. A. Garguez Gomez

75'

B. Oyarzo Munoz← P. Rubio

82'

Gabriel Graciani

90+3'

Dilan Zúñiga

90'

D. Saavedra← G. Graciani

90'

G. Sosa← M. Plaza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NublensePalestino

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots13

2Corners5

12Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots13

6On Target4

2Off Target8

1Blocked1

7Inside Box7

2Outside Box6

Passing

36%Possession64%

318Total Passes552

237Accurate Passes467

75%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls10

4Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0