Palestino 2–2 Independiente Medellin

Palestino

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente Medellin

N. Linares 50'

I. Román 48'

J. Varela 90+3', 41'

8/15/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Palestino36%

×Draw27%

Independiente Medellin38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalestinoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.31

Palestino

1.27

Independiente Medellin

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

0.76

creates per match

1.44

1.18

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Palestino

0.76

Independiente Medellin

1.44

allows per match

Palestino

1.18

Independiente Medellin

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palestino+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestino ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Palestino or draw

62%

Palestino or Independiente Medellin

73%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

64%

Winning margin

Palestino wins by 2+

16%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Palestino 1+ goals

72%

Palestino 2+ goals

36%

Palestino 3+ goals

14%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

73%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

38%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Palestino (draw refunded)

49%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestino at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestino attack 0.76 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.27

Independiente Medellin attack 1.44 + Palestino defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Palestino scores more

36%

level

27%

Independiente Medellin scores more

38%

Independiente Medellin at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Varela

Independiente Medellin · D

8.9

Match Events

41'

J. Varela↳ L. Chaverra

48'

I. Román↳ N. Linares

50'

N. Linares↳ B. Rojas

64'

Nicolás Linares

64'

J. Vásquez← L. Sandoval

72'

F. Chamorro← J. Abrigo

78'

P. Palacio← B. Carrasco

78'

J. Garro← G. Sosa

78'

Marcus Vinicius← D. Moreno

78'

F. Chaverra← J. Fory

83'

B. Véjar← J. Benítez

84'

José Ortiz

87'

H. Martínez← L. Chaverra

90+3'

J. Varela↳ B. León

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalestinoIndependiente

Overview

48%Possession52%

8Total Shots10

3Corners7

11Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots10

3On Target3

4Off Target6

1Blocked1

8Inside Box4

0Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

348Total Passes380

260Accurate Passes285

75%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides5