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Independiente Medellin vs Palestino — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Palestino
Palestino
Jesus Murillo 45'
Elvis Perlaza -1' (pen)
Luis Jimenez 42', -1' (pen)
Agustin Farias -1' (pen)
Luis Mago -1' (pen)
Cristóbal Jorquera -1' (pen)
2/12/2019CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Independiente Medellin50%
×Draw25%
Palestino26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.61
Palestino
1.08

Independiente Medellin creates 49% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.62
Palestino
1.40

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.77
Palestino
1.60

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Palestino+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Palestino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
74%
Independiente Medellin or Palestino
75%
Draw or Palestino
50%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
26%
Palestino wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
80%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
48%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
22%
Palestino 1+ goals
66%
Palestino 2+ goals
29%
Palestino 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
66%
Palestino (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Palestino away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.62 + Palestino defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.61

Palestino attack 1.40 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
50%
level
25%
Palestino scores more
26%

Independiente Medellin at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
Nicolas PalaciosIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin · M
7.8

Match Events

-1'
Elvis PerlazaPenalty
-1'
Andres RicaurteMissed penalty
-1'
Diego HerazoMissed penalty
-1'
Agustin FariasPenalty
-1'
Luis JimenezPenalty
-1'
Luis MagoPenalty
-1'
Cristóbal JorqueraPenalty
31'
Diego Arias← William Parra
42'
Luis Jimenez
43'
Luis Jimenez
45'
Jesus Murillo↳ Andres Ricaurte
45'
Larry Angulo
45'
Luis Mago
45'
Ignacio Gonzalez
61'
Richard Paredes← Roberto Gutierrez
80'
Diego Herazo← Larry Angulo
80'
Diego Rosende← Julian Fernandez
88'
Ever Valencia← Leonardo Castro
90'
Guillermo Soto
90'
Cristóbal Jorquera← César Cortés

Possession

50%Independiente

Shots

17Independiente

Pass accuracy

50%Independiente

Statistics

IndependientePalestino
Overview
50%Possession50%
17Total Shots10
2Corners3
9Fouls15
Shots
17Total Shots10
4On Target2
10Off Target8
3Blocked0
8Inside Box8
9Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
323Total Passes325
233Accurate Passes234
72%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls15
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Palestino

Independiente Medellin and Palestino drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on February 12, 2019.

Goals: Elvis Perlaza (-1' pen), Agustin Farias (-1' pen), Luis Jimenez (-1' pen, 42'), Luis Mago (-1' pen), Cristóbal Jorquera (-1' pen), Jesus Murillo (45').

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (50%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellin.