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Independiente Medellin vs Palestino — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellinadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Palestino
Palestino
B. Perlaza 67'
L. Chaverra 66' (pen)
J. Alvarado 42'
I. Román 29' (OG)
8/22/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Independiente Medellin59%
×Draw23%
Palestino18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.83
Palestino
0.89

Independiente Medellin creates 106% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
2.11
Palestino
0.89

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.89
Palestino
1.56

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Palestino+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Palestino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
82%
Independiente Medellin or Palestino
77%
Draw or Palestino
41%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
34%
Palestino wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
84%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
54%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
28%
Palestino 1+ goals
59%
Palestino 2+ goals
22%
Palestino 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
77%
Palestino (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Palestino away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 2.11 + Palestino defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.83

Palestino attack 0.89 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
59%
level
23%
Palestino scores more
18%

Independiente Medellin at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
L. ChaverraIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin · D
7.9

Match Events

29'
I. RománOwn goal
34'
Iván Román
42'
J. Alvarado
46'
J. Abrigo← A. Martínez
63'
Luis SandovalPenalty confirmed
65'
Misael Dávila
66'
L. ChaverraPenalty
67'
B. Perlaza↳ L. Sandoval
68'
J. Garro← J. Benítez
69'
I. Garguez← D. Zúñiga
69'
F. Montes← M. Dávila
77'
H. Martínez← F. Torijano
77'
P. Lima← D. Moreno
77'
J. Vásquez← L. Sandoval
77'
B. Véjar← B. Carrasco
82'
Marcus Vinicius← L. Chaverra
90'
M. García← B. León

Possession

53%Independiente

Shots

16Independiente

Pass accuracy

50%Independiente

Statistics

IndependientePalestino
Overview
53%Possession47%
16Total Shots13
6Corners5
5Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots13
10On Target3
4Off Target5
2Blocked5
11Inside Box6
5Outside Box7
Passing
53%Possession47%
402Total Passes344
317Accurate Passes270
79%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves7
Discipline
5Fouls11
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Palestino

Independiente Medellin beat Palestino 4-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on August 22, 2024.

Goals: I. Román (29' o.g.), J. Alvarado (42'), L. Chaverra (66' pen), B. Perlaza (67').

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.