Palestino 1–1 Independiente Medellin

Palestino

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente Medellin

Julian Fernandez 64'

Germán Cano 60'

2/6/2019

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Municipal de La Cisterna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Palestino45%

×Draw25%

Independiente Medellin31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalestinoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.27

Palestino

1.58

Independiente Medellin

1.27

Palestino creates 24% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

1.50

creates per match

1.33

1.20

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Palestino

1.50

Independiente Medellin

1.33

allows per match

Palestino

1.20

Independiente Medellin

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palestino+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestino ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Palestino or draw

69%

Palestino or Independiente Medellin

75%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

55%

Winning margin

Palestino wins by 2+

23%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Palestino 1+ goals

79%

Palestino 2+ goals

47%

Palestino 3+ goals

21%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

72%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

36%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Palestino (draw refunded)

59%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestino at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestino attack 1.50 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Independiente Medellin attack 1.33 + Palestino defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Palestino scores more

45%

level

25%

Independiente Medellin scores more

31%

Palestino at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Palestino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Andres Ricaurte

Independiente Medellin · M

7.7

Match Events

27'

Dairon Mosquera

60'

Germán Cano↳ Leonardo Castro

61'

William Parra

63'

Enzo Guerrero← César Cortés

64'

Julian Fernandez↳ Guillermo Soto

70'

Larry Angulo

74'

Julian Fernandez

77'

Enzo Guerrero

77'

Diego Arias← Larry Angulo

82'

Cristóbal Jorquera← Lucas Giuliano Passerini

89'

Diego Rosende← Julian Fernandez

89'

Bryan Castrillón← Leonardo Castro

90'

Diego Herazo← Andres Ricaurte

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalestinoIndependiente

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots13

5Corners2

22Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots13

5On Target5

7Off Target5

0Blocked3

5Inside Box8

7Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

389Total Passes285

309Accurate Passes196

79%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

22Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0