Palermo 0–0 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Palermo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Frosinone

8/30/2025

Serie B · Round 2Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Palermo53%

×Draw21%

Frosinone26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalermoExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.39

Palermo

2.05

Frosinone

1.39

Palermo creates 47% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

2.15

creates per match

1.72

1.06

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Palermo

2.15

Frosinone

1.72

allows per match

Palermo

1.06

Frosinone

1.96

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.48scores more than expected

finishing

Palermo+0.15scores more

Frosinone+0.48scores more

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Palermo or draw

74%

Palermo or Frosinone

79%

Draw or Frosinone

47%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+

31%

Frosinone wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals

87%

Palermo 2+ goals

61%

Palermo 3+ goals

33%

Frosinone 1+ goals

75%

Frosinone 2+ goals

40%

Frosinone 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)

67%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.06 · 10 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.96 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 2.15 + Frosinone defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.05

Frosinone attack 1.72 + Palermo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Palermo scores more

53%

level

21%

Frosinone scores more

26%

Palermo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

79

G. Bracaglia

Frosinone · D

8.0

Match Events

30'

Giacomo Calò

48'

Antonio RaimondoPenalty cancelled

59'

E. Masciangelo← G. Kvernadze

60'

F. Gelli← K. Barcella

64'

J. Le Douaron← M. Brunori

70'

A. Palumbo← T. Augello

70'

C. Gomes← J. Segre

74'

M. Cichella← G. Calo

74'

M. Zilli← A. Raimondo

75'

76'

82'

83'

83'

G. Corona← J. Pohjanpalo

90+5'

Mattia Bani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalermoFrosinone

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots10

6Corners3

18Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots10

2On Target4

7Off Target4

4Blocked2

12Inside Box7

1Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

345Total Passes330

272Accurate Passes254

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2