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Palermo vs Frosinone — Serie B 2018

Palermo
Palermo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Frosinone
Frosinone
M. Brunori 48', 30'
5/9/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 38Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Palermo53%
×Draw21%
Frosinone26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palermo
2.05
Frosinone
1.39

Palermo creates 47% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Palermo
2.15
Frosinone
1.72

allows per match

Palermo
1.06
Frosinone
1.96

finishing

Palermo+0.15scores more
Frosinone+0.48scores more

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Frosinone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Palermo or draw
74%
Palermo or Frosinone
79%
Draw or Frosinone
47%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+
31%
Frosinone wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals
87%
Palermo 2+ goals
61%
Palermo 3+ goals
33%
Frosinone 1+ goals
75%
Frosinone 2+ goals
40%
Frosinone 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)
67%
Frosinone (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.06 · 10 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.96 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 2.15 + Frosinone defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.05

Frosinone attack 1.72 + Palermo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Palermo scores more
53%
level
21%
Frosinone scores more
26%

Palermo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. BrunoriPalermoPalermo · F
8.5

Match Events

30'
M. Brunori↳ F. Di Francesco
48'
M. Brunori↳ C. Gomes
49'
G. Ambrosino← G. Bracaglia
65'
A. Oyono← Mateus Lusuardi
65'
A. Partipilo← F. Ghedjemis
70'
K. Lund← F. Di Francesco
77'
F. Di Mariano← S. Diakité
77'
F. Ranocchia← J. Segre
81'
Alexis Blin
82'
Matteo Brunori
90+1'
A. Vasić← C. Gomes
90'
J. Le Douaron← M. Brunori
90+3'
F. Grosso← B. Kone
90+3'
A. Cichero← E. Pecorino

Possession

48%Palermo

Shots

9Palermo

Pass accuracy

48%Palermo

Statistics

PalermoFrosinone
Overview
48%Possession52%
9Total Shots14
3Corners2
20Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots14
3On Target1
4Off Target12
2Blocked1
5Inside Box6
4Outside Box8
Passing
48%Possession52%
388Total Passes418
303Accurate Passes355
78%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
20Fouls15
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Palermo vs Frosinone

Palermo beat Frosinone 2-0 in Serie B on May 9, 2025.

Goals: M. Brunori (30', 48').

Frosinone controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Palermo.