Frosinone 1–1 Palermo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Palermo

G. Calo 75'

F. Ranocchia 89'

4/10/2026

Serie B · Round 34Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Frosinone42%

×Draw25%

Palermo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.33

Frosinone

1.52

Palermo

1.33

Frosinone creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

1.62

creates per match

1.53

1.13

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Frosinone

1.62

Palermo

1.53

allows per match

Frosinone

1.13

Palermo

1.42

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Frosinone+0.38scores more

Palermo-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

67%

Frosinone or Palermo

75%

Draw or Palermo

58%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

21%

Palermo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

78%

Frosinone 2+ goals

45%

Frosinone 3+ goals

20%

Palermo 1+ goals

74%

Palermo 2+ goals

38%

Palermo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

56%

Palermo (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.13 · 7 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.42 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.62 + Palermo defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Palermo attack 1.53 + Frosinone defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Frosinone scores more

42%

level

25%

Palermo scores more

33%

Frosinone at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Ranocchia

Palermo · M

8.6

Match Events

-5'

16'

39'

43'

46'

62'

E. Gyasi← N. Pierozzi

67'

F. Gelli← M. Cichella

67'

M. Zilli← A. Raimondo

73'

Farès Ghedjemis

75'

G. Calo

77'

A. Vasic← P. Ceccaroni

80'

S. Fini← F. Ghedjemis

82'

Massimo Zilli

83'

S. Giovane← A. Palumbo

89'

F. Ranocchia↳ J. Pohjanpalo

90+1'

Patryk Peda

90'

B. L. Kone← G. Calo

90'

A. Fiori← G. Kvernadze

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinonePalermo

Overview

46%Possession54%

14Total Shots13

0.49Expected Goals (xG)0.64

4Corners7

12Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots13

5On Target7

5Off Target6

4Blocked1

8Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

273Total Passes310

176Accurate Passes192

64%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

-0.22Goals Prevented-0.22

Discipline

12Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Serie B: Frosinone 1–1 Palermo

Frosinone and Palermo drew 1-1 in Serie B on April 10, 2026.

Goals: G. Calo (75'), F. Ranocchia (89').

Palermo controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.

Frosinone vs Palermo — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Frosinone 1–1 Palermo