Frosinone 1–1 Palermo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Palermo

G. Bracaglia 16'

R. Insigne 2'

11/8/2024

Serie B · Round 13Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Frosinone42%

×Draw25%

Palermo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.33

Frosinone

1.52

Palermo

1.33

Frosinone creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

1.62

creates per match

1.53

1.13

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Frosinone

1.62

Palermo

1.53

allows per match

Frosinone

1.13

Palermo

1.42

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Frosinone+0.38scores more

Palermo-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

67%

Frosinone or Palermo

75%

Draw or Palermo

58%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

21%

Palermo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

78%

Frosinone 2+ goals

45%

Frosinone 3+ goals

20%

Palermo 1+ goals

74%

Palermo 2+ goals

38%

Palermo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

56%

Palermo (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.13 · 7 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.42 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.62 + Palermo defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Palermo attack 1.53 + Frosinone defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Frosinone scores more

42%

level

25%

Palermo scores more

33%

Frosinone at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

R. Insigne

Palermo · F

8.3

Match Events

2'

R. Insigne

16'

G. Bracaglia↳ R. Marchizza

28'

Ebrima Darboe

45'

Valerio Verre

46'

F. Sene← G. Ambrosino

64'

F. Ranocchia← C. Gomes

73'

Davide Biraschi

75'

A. Vasić← V. Verre

75'

T. Henry← J. Le Douaron

81'

L. Garritano← F. Gelli

81'

L. Canotto← G. Kvernadze

88'

F. Di Francesco← F. Di Mariano

88'

N. Pierozzi← S. Diakité

89'

Luca Garritano

89'

İ. Vural← K. Barcella

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinonePalermo

Overview

39%Possession61%

11Total Shots13

5Corners5

21Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots13

1On Target8

5Off Target3

5Blocked2

9Inside Box8

2Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

290Total Passes463

202Accurate Passes377

70%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

7Saves0

Discipline

21Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0