Palermo 3–2 Empoli: Result & Stats | Serie B

Palermo

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Empoli

J. Pohjanpalo 84' (pen), 57'

A. Fulignati 24' (OG)

T. Ebuehi 72'

G. Guarino 5'

2/7/2026

Serie B · Round 23Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Palermo54%

×Draw22%

Empoli23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalermoExpected goals in this matchEmpoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.17

Palermo

1.90

Empoli

1.17

Palermo creates 62% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

2.15

creates per match

1.27

1.06

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Palermo

2.15

Empoli

1.27

allows per match

Palermo

1.06

Empoli

1.64

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Palermo+0.15scores more

Empoli-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Empoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Palermo or draw

77%

Palermo or Empoli

78%

Draw or Empoli

46%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+

31%

Empoli wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals

85%

Palermo 2+ goals

56%

Palermo 3+ goals

29%

Empoli 1+ goals

69%

Empoli 2+ goals

33%

Empoli 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)

70%

Empoli (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.06 · 10 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 2.15 + Empoli defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.90

Empoli attack 1.27 + Palermo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Palermo scores more

54%

level

22%

Empoli scores more

23%

Palermo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Pohjanpalo

Palermo · F

7.7

Match Events

5'

G. Guarino

24'

A. FulignatiOwn goal

33'

Mattia Bani

38'

Matteo Lovato

45'

Pietro Ceccaroni

46'

G. Magnani← P. Ceccaroni

56'

D. Johnsen← E. Gyasi

56'

D. Fila← M. Nasti

57'

J. Pohjanpalo↳ J. Le Douaron

66'

Nosa Edward Obaretin

70'

T. Ebuehi← S. Elia

71'

J. Ceesay← A. Candela

72'

T. Ebuehi

79'

Joel PohjanpaloPenalty cancelled

82'

C. Gomes← J. Segre

82'

A. Vasic← J. Le Douaron

84'

J. PohjanpaloPenalty

88'

L. Ignacchiti← D. Degli Innocenti

88'

B. Popov← S. Shpendi

90+7'

Luca Magnino

90+6'

Andrea Fulignati

90+1'

A. Blin← F. Ranocchia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalermoEmpoli

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots17

1.94Expected Goals (xG)1.07

3Corners5

19Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots17

3On Target8

3Off Target5

6Blocked4

9Inside Box9

3Outside Box8

Passing

57%Possession43%

386Total Passes282

327Accurate Passes222

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

-1.15Goals Prevented-1.15

Discipline

19Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2