Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Palermo vs Empoli — Serie B 2018

Palermo
Palermo
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Empoli
Empoli
E. Gnahoré 77'
Coronado 14'
T. Cionek 10'
F. Caputo 90+4' (pen), 54'
L. Šimić 23'
9/9/2017Serie BSerie B · Round 3Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Palermo54%
×Draw22%
Empoli23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palermo
1.90
Empoli
1.17

Palermo creates 62% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

Palermo
2.15
Empoli
1.27

allows per match

Palermo
1.06
Empoli
1.64

finishing

Palermo+0.15scores more
Empoli-0.12scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Empoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Palermo or draw
77%
Palermo or Empoli
78%
Draw or Empoli
46%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+
31%
Empoli wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals
85%
Palermo 2+ goals
56%
Palermo 3+ goals
29%
Empoli 1+ goals
69%
Empoli 2+ goals
33%
Empoli 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)
70%
Empoli (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.06 · 10 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 2.15 + Empoli defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.90

Empoli attack 1.27 + Palermo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Palermo scores more
54%
level
22%
Empoli scores more
23%

Palermo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
T. Cionek
14'
Coronado↳ E. Gnahoré
23'
L. Šimić↳ J. Untersee
54'
F. Caputo↳ S. Romagnoli
58'
R. Murawski← I. Chochev
59'
A. Trajkovski← I. Nestorovski
63'
M. Zajc← I. Bennacer
65'
Michele Castagnetti
74'
G. Di Lorenzo← J. Untersee
77'
E. Gnahoré↳ A. Rispoli
78'
N. Ninković← A. Donnarumma
85'
Francesco Caputo
88'
M. Morganella← Coronado
90'
Andrea Rispoli
90'
Eddy Gnahore
90'
Aleksandar Trajkovski
90+4'
F. CaputoPenalty

Possession

53%Palermo

Shots

10Palermo

Statistics

PalermoEmpoli
Overview
53%Possession47%
10Total Shots8
5Corners3
16Fouls9
Shots
10Total Shots8
3On Target5
7Off Target3
Passing
53%Possession47%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
16Fouls9
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Palermo vs Empoli

Palermo and Empoli drew 3-3 in Serie B on September 9, 2017.

Goals: T. Cionek (10'), Coronado (14'), L. Šimić (23'), F. Caputo (54', 90+4' pen), E. Gnahoré (77').

Palermo controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Renzo Barbera in Palermo.