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Empoli vs Palermo — Serie B 2018

Empoli
Empoli
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Palermo
Palermo
F. Caputo 82' (pen), 51', 45'
M. Brighi 12'
2/2/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 24Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Empoli46%
×Draw25%
Palermo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.57
Palermo
1.19

Empoli creates 32% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Empoli
1.72
Palermo
1.45

allows per match

Empoli
0.92
Palermo
1.43

finishing

Empoli-0.26scores less
Palermo-0.25scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Palermo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
71%
Empoli or Palermo
75%
Draw or Palermo
54%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
23%
Palermo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
79%
Empoli 2+ goals
46%
Empoli 3+ goals
21%
Palermo 1+ goals
70%
Palermo 2+ goals
33%
Palermo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
61%
Palermo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.72 + Palermo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.57

Palermo attack 1.45 + Empoli defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Empoli scores more
46%
level
25%
Palermo scores more
29%

Empoli at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
M. Brighi
31'
Aljaž Struna
45'
F. Caputo↳ M. Zajc
47'
Miha Zajc
51'
F. Caputo↳ M. Zajc
53'
Frédéric Veseli
56'
S. Moreo← I. Chochev
65'
E. Gnahoré← P. Szymiński
72'
N. Ninković← A. Donnarumma
72'
G. Rolando← Coronado
73'
Gabriele Rolando
81'
S. Luperto← M. Zajc
82'
F. CaputoPenalty
83'
L. Lollo← M. Brighi

Possession

49%Empoli

Shots

7Empoli

Statistics

EmpoliPalermo
Overview
49%Possession51%
7Total Shots10
4Corners11
15Fouls5
Shots
7Total Shots10
5On Target6
2Off Target4
Passing
49%Possession51%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls5
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides0

Serie B: Empoli 4–0 Palermo

Empoli beat Palermo 4-0 in Serie B on February 2, 2018.

Goals: M. Brighi (12'), F. Caputo (45', 51', 82' pen).

Palermo controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Carlo Castellani in Empoli.