Empoli 1–3 Palermo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Empoli

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Palermo

P. Pellegri 63'

J. Pohjanpalo 74', 18'

J. Le Douaron 7'

12/7/2025

Serie B · Round 15Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Empoli46%

×Draw25%

Palermo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmpoliExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.19

Empoli

1.57

Palermo

1.19

Empoli creates 32% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

1.72

creates per match

1.45

0.92

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Empoli

1.72

Palermo

1.45

allows per match

Empoli

0.92

Palermo

1.43

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Empoli-0.26scores less

Palermo-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Empoli or draw

71%

Empoli or Palermo

75%

Draw or Palermo

54%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+

23%

Palermo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals

79%

Empoli 2+ goals

46%

Empoli 3+ goals

21%

Palermo 1+ goals

70%

Palermo 2+ goals

33%

Palermo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)

61%

Palermo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.72 + Palermo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.57

Palermo attack 1.45 + Empoli defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Empoli scores more

46%

level

25%

Palermo scores more

29%

Empoli at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

66

J. Joronen

Palermo · G

8.9

Match Events

7'

J. Le Douaron↳ A. Palumbo

14'

Jacopo Segre

18'

J. Pohjanpalo↳ P. Ceccaroni

33'

Bartosz Bereszyński

46'

P. Pellegri← M. Nasti

46'

P. Peda← B. Bereszynski

55'

A. Vasic← J. Le Douaron

56'

61'

63'

70'

73'

D. Degli Innocenti← A. Ghion

73'

E. Saporiti← J. Ceesay

74'

J. Pohjanpalo

82'

F. Carboni← S. Shpendi

82'

F. Bianchi← S. Elia

88'

D. Veroli← T. Augello

90'

Brando Moruzzi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmpoliPalermo

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots15

2.82Expected Goals (xG)1.97

7Corners5

14Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots15

6On Target3

4Off Target10

8Blocked2

14Inside Box14

4Outside Box1

Passing

53%Possession47%

456Total Passes410

370Accurate Passes319

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Empoli vs Palermo

Palermo beat Empoli 3-1 in Serie B on December 7, 2025.

Goals: J. Le Douaron (7'), J. Pohjanpalo (18', 74'), P. Pellegri (63').

Empoli controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli.

Empoli vs Palermo — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Empoli vs Palermo