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Pafos vs Anorthosis — 1. Division 2025

Pafos
Pafos
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Anorthosis
Anorthosis
2/21/20261. Division1. Division · Round 23Stelios Kyriakides Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Pafos61%
×Draw23%
Anorthosis15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pafos
1.74
Anorthosis
0.73

Pafos creates 138% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 16 away

creates per match

Pafos
2.17
Anorthosis
0.63

allows per match

Pafos
0.83
Anorthosis
1.31

finishing

Pafos+0.00on par
Anorthosis+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pafos ↓

Anorthosis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pafos or draw
85%
Pafos or Anorthosis
77%
Draw or Anorthosis
39%

Winning margin

Pafos wins by 2+
35%
Anorthosis wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Pafos 1+ goals
82%
Pafos 2+ goals
52%
Pafos 3+ goals
25%
Anorthosis 1+ goals
52%
Anorthosis 2+ goals
17%
Anorthosis 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pafos (draw refunded)
80%
Anorthosis (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pafos at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Anorthosis away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pafos attack 2.17 + Anorthosis defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.74

Anorthosis attack 0.63 + Pafos defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Pafos scores more
61%
level
23%
Anorthosis scores more
15%

Pafos at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
M. OrsicPafosPafos · M
8.0

Match Events

33'
Andreas Chrysostomou
57'
Vlad Dragomir
64'
Dani Silva← D. Quina
64'
Anderson Silva← Lele
66'
M. Ilia← A. Chrysostomou
68'
Jay Gorter
77'
N. Michail← Jaja
77'
M. Ioannou← T. Kiss
89'
S. Vukic← T. Schattin
90+15'
Marios Ilia

Possession

49%Pafos

Shots

14Pafos

Pass accuracy

49%Pafos

Statistics

PafosAnorthosis
Overview
49%Possession51%
14Total Shots6
1.85Expected Goals (xG)0.19
4Corners2
15Fouls8
Shots
14Total Shots6
3On Target2
8Off Target3
1Blocked1
10Inside Box1
4Outside Box5
Passing
49%Possession51%
411Total Passes469
332Accurate Passes398
81%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls8
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
0Offsides0

1. Division: Pafos 0–0 Anorthosis

Pafos and Anorthosis drew 0-0 in 1. Division on February 21, 2026.

Anorthosis controlled possession (51%) and registered 6 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stelios Kyriakides Stadium in Pafos.