Anorthosis 0–2 Pafos: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Anorthosis

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Pafos

M. Tanković 80', 47'

1/2/2025

1. Division · Round 16Stadio Antonis Papadopoulos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Anorthosis36%

×Draw26%

Pafos38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnorthosisExpected goals in this matchPafos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.38

Anorthosis

1.32

Pafos

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 24 away

1.39

creates per match

1.58

1.17

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Anorthosis

1.39

Pafos

1.58

allows per match

Anorthosis

1.17

Pafos

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Anorthosis+0.00on par

Pafos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anorthosis ↓

Pafos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Anorthosis or draw

62%

Anorthosis or Pafos

74%

Draw or Pafos

64%

Winning margin

Anorthosis wins by 2+

16%

Pafos wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Anorthosis 1+ goals

73%

Anorthosis 2+ goals

38%

Anorthosis 3+ goals

15%

Pafos 1+ goals

75%

Pafos 2+ goals

40%

Pafos 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Anorthosis (draw refunded)

48%

Pafos (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anorthosis at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

Pafos away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anorthosis attack 1.39 + Pafos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Pafos attack 1.58 + Anorthosis defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Anorthosis scores more

36%

level

26%

Pafos scores more

38%

Pafos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

M. Tanković

Pafos · F

9.0

Match Events

27'

D. Paroutis← K. Artymatas

47'

M. Tanković

63'

Kiko← K. Stamoulis

63'

A. Iliev← D. Theodorou

67'

Léo Natel← Jajá

77'

Domingos Quina← V. Dragomir

80'

M. Tanković

83'

M. Tanlongo← M. Tanković

83'

M. Name← I. Šunjić

83'

Anderson Silva← Jairo

90+5'

Ante Roguljić

90+3'

Mehdi Boukamir

90+3'

Jonathan Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AnorthosisPafos

Overview

46%Possession54%

8Total Shots22

1.05Expected Goals (xG)2.80

3Corners5

9Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots22

1On Target7

4Off Target12

3Blocked3

5Inside Box15

3Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

308Total Passes422

239Accurate Passes347

78%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3